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  • RodentRodent    7,470 posts
    How can you compare last 600m when one was getting checked and racing wide whilst the other was covering less ground unimpeded?
     Each horse was completely unimpeded over the last 200m with Dom To Shoot running 11.35 and Inspirational Girl running 11.51.
     Dom will drop 4.5kg and Inspirational Girl will rise 4kg. At this stage I'm undecided but DTS has been caught wide at its last 5 starts. It may be just that sort of horse. A great motor but tactically inefficient.

    Gilgamesh, Manchild, JimmyPop likes this post.

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  • GilgameshGilgamesh    5,009 posts
    A bit of a knock for me on Inspiration Girl is she is coming of the 2nd fastest Ascot mile ever?? (thought that was what I heard anyhow, stand to be corrected) up 200m in two weeks. Thought she liked her races spaced slightly, is there a chance she might be a bit knackered from that run? 

    That was her GF, she nailed that race but for me it doesn't mean she is going to perform to that level in this race.

    She might and may bolt in but as others have said I cant be with her at the price.
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  • therealkramertherealkramer    8,008 posts
    @Rodent, first of all you're exaggerating the effect of the inconvenience DTS encountered and I'll provide the link to the replay for anyone interested in actually confirming this. Secondly, momentum is more important in higher tempo races where a horse has cover. 

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  • RodentRodent    7,470 posts
    therealkramer said:

    @Rodent, first of all you're exaggerating the effect of the inconvenience DTS encountered and I'll provide the link to the replay for anyone interested in actually confirming this. Secondly, momentum is more important in higher tempo races where a horse has cover. 


    I didn't quantify the effect of the interference so unless it had no impact at all, how could I exaggerate it? I just don't see the last 600m comparison being a straight out time A vs time B.
     The last 200m they were both going flat chat unimpeded. That tells me DTS is in the ball park, especially with the weight swing.
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  • therealkramertherealkramer    8,008 posts
    edited December 2020
    Rodent said:

    therealkramer said:

    @Rodent, first of all you're exaggerating the effect of the inconvenience DTS encountered and I'll provide the link to the replay for anyone interested in actually confirming this. Secondly, momentum is more important in higher tempo races where a horse has cover. 


    I didn't quantify the effect of the interference so unless it had no impact at all, how could I exaggerate it? I just don't see the last 600m comparison being a straight out time A vs time B.
     The last 200m they were both going flat chat unimpeded. That tells me DTS is in the ball park, especially with the weight swing.
    Well you choose to ignore the fact that, IG reeled off her sectional off a MUCH faster first 1000m-I provided that data too and it's important. The slower tempo in the Guineas makes the wide trip of DTS irrelevant. As for the weight swing, it is meaningless in terms of ability to sprint at WFA. I'll  drop the link to last year's race and you tell me how Kay Cee(50kg) fared against Best Of Days(59kg) and Regal Power(58.5kg). In any case, we'll get to see just how much quicker the colt can sprint with IG behind him beocs the barrier draw has favoured him, provided he can settle closer.

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  • RodentRodent    7,470 posts
    edited December 2020
    I haven't ignored anything. I'm not saying DTS will beat IG. Of course her ability to reel off those splits off such a fast pace speaks volumes of her ability. We have no idea of knowing yet if DTS can do similar, much like we didn't know Elite Street could still reel off great sectionals with weight off a fast pace until after the Winterbottom.
     I just don't think comparing their last 600m splits on 21-11-20 is a fair or accurate comparison, nothing more, nothing less. If you think it is a fair comparison then we disagree. If you don't then there is nothing to argue about. 
     By the way "The slower tempo in the Guineas makes the wide trip of DTS irrelevant" 
    Not really when you are comparing last 600m times as DTS will have run further than IG in the time figures mentioned. I understand what you are saying in terms of work done but the last 600m comparisons are comparing finishing speed.

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  • therealkramertherealkramer    8,008 posts
    14-15L faster thru the first 1000m is not insignificant and if we're being generous and say DTS lost 2L, it still only brings his closing 600m equal to IG. He's not gonna be 10L in front of IG, let alone 15 and she didn't see the whip last start. The Railway is the superior form race, and if the barrier draw costs the mare the race this weekend, it's TCTS that's the likely beneficiary. 
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  • thefalconthefalcon    20,485 posts
    i will refrain until saturday morning...but i know what i am going to toss into the mix...and i reckon it will win... :-B
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  • therealkramertherealkramer    8,008 posts
    edited December 2020
    Gilgamesh said:

    A bit of a knock for me on Inspiration Girl is she is coming of the 2nd fastest Ascot mile ever?? (thought that was what I heard anyhow, stand to be corrected) up 200m in two weeks. Thought she liked her races spaced slightly, is there a chance she might be a bit knackered from that run? 


    That was her GF, she nailed that race but for me it doesn't mean she is going to perform to that level in this race.

    She might and may bolt in but as others have said I cant be with her at the price.
    Now $2.40 which is getting to a more reasonable quote. If that run ruined her chances by doing no work actually setting the pace then Too Close The Sun, who worked on pace, and Kay Cee, who was caught three wide and faded badly, have  absolutely none. IG held her position and kept Kay Cee posted, despite the tempo and still let down brilliantly to win untouched and running right thru the line. 1800 holds no fears based on that run-it's more the barrier and the possibility of the pace steadying if she's last or near to last. There's enough speed again so it's really just up to Pike to judge when to make his run and which horse(s) to follow when he does.
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  • Precision1Precision1    589 posts
    Western Empire a chance to get in still?

    Just thinking if I’m Dan Morton and I have Snickerdoodledandy going to end up in the 3yo race by the looks with no one in the field likely to scratch now.  If I scratch now you give Bob the option of pulling out Truly Great to get Western Empire into the field.  That takes out Western Empire from the 3yo race where Dan will have 5 runners. Makes sense to me 

    H-BOMBER likes this post.

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  • ChelseaChelsea    1,369 posts
    Cherry ripe Bomber

    H-BOMBER likes this post.

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  • thefalconthefalcon    20,485 posts
    cherry ripe, had one last night out of the cadbury favourites pack...hadn't had one since a saturday matinee when i was a kid....

    anyway, back to the KT, i reckon wolfies 3yo with 50kg will give it a real shake. hark back to last year, kay cee won with 50kg and i think WMD is probably better than KC as this stage of the game.
    besides, wolfie needs a few sheckles to pay for his new pearly-whites...
    :D
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  • ThunderstruckThunderstruck    7,696 posts
    edited December 2020
    cherry ripe's are GROSS my old man used to love them ..can't say what they remind me of in the centre :))

    Falc, with similar luck Dom beats the filly last start imo? but she will be in the mix possibly, however i hope you guys are willing to save on Too Close The Sun? Bet he is absolutely spot on for tomorrow and think he may kick some highly rated ASS.l will be winning if he does lets put it that way

    are we doing a seperate thread for the day assuming yes well im kicking one off early.
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  • thefalconthefalcon    20,485 posts
    its a devil of a race, thunder. 16 starters, maybe 4 or 5 too many..no names no p/d.
    TCTS is in it up to his eyeballs, so are 12,13,14,15 & 16.
    please God give as a break from the cerise and white....
    [-O<

    Thunderstruck likes this post.

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  • therealkramertherealkramer    8,008 posts
    I see at least one corp has the market at 130%, so if the emergencies are scratched, it's ~9c deductions. You certainly wouldn't be backing the fav($2.35) now unless you're happy with $2.25

    Thunderstruck likes this post.

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  • TheDivaTheDiva    13,248 posts
    No deductions for emergencies
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  • therealkramertherealkramer    8,008 posts
    edited December 2020
    TheDiva said:

    No deductions for emergencies


    Sportsbet's terms & conds do actually inc deductions for emergencies

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  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,567 posts
    TheDiva said:

    No deductions for emergencies




    Learn something new every day. I thought there were always deductions.
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  • ThunderstruckThunderstruck    7,696 posts
    therealkramer said:

    I see at least one corp has the market at 130%, so if the emergencies are scratched, it's ~9c deductions. You certainly wouldn't be backing the fav($2.35) now unless you're happy with $2.25





    Western Empire scr so Tabtouch wound IG from 2.45 into 2.20 on, TCTS 8 into 7, DTS 7.50 into 6.5.
    As far as i know deductions apply to emergencies?
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  • TheDivaTheDiva    13,248 posts
    Never in wa... corporates do whatever the hell they want... as you know.
    Sportsbet note a special betting rule... deductions apply to emergencies :-q

    therealkramer likes this post.

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  • tonytony    2,436 posts
    Sportsbet had a full page ad in the West today promoting a money back for 3nd and 3rd. However the conditions at the bottom of the ad excluded WA residents.
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  • ThunderstruckThunderstruck    7,696 posts
    False advertising it covers w.a too..as does Ladbrokes I just joined there..and probably most others too..Neds also say the same thing I think.

    hash likes this post.

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  • JimmyPopJimmyPop    364 posts
    Ziebell winning, that shows the on-speed bias today. You need to be up front before, well at least until the breeze comes in.
    There is a race for every horse.
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  • paraleticparaletic    3,750 posts
    edited December 2020
    3 leaders, 3 winners. I live 1km from the track and breeze was already in an hour ago Jimmy

    JimmyPop likes this post.

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  • JimmyPopJimmyPop    364 posts
    paraletic said:

    3 leaders, 3 winners. I live 1km from the track and breeze was already in an hour ago Jimmy

    Always a paradise for leaders when the rail goes back to true.
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  • paraleticparaletic    3,750 posts
    paraletic said:

    I dont get the love affair with Dom To Shoot. 12 starts for 3 wins, most races in its own age group, doesnt really tickle my pickle. Happy to eat humble pie but Bob quinellas the race with IG winning very very easily.


    i was right about the quinella part 8-}

    Ridersonthestorm33 likes this post.

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  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    10,942 posts
    Lucky you didn't say exacta para! Quinella was spot on.
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  • therealkramertherealkramer    8,008 posts
    edited December 2020
    @paraletic Well we found out what he could or couldn't do ridden forward off a faster tempo-last 600m 35.05. IG gave him a start and a thumping. 
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  • hashhash    7,495 posts
    edited December 2020
    tony said:

    Sportsbet had a full page ad in the West today promoting a money back for 3nd and 3rd. However the conditions at the bottom of the ad excluded WA residents.




    They have to advertise it by law but they definitely do honour all those promos (and more)
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  • therealkramertherealkramer    8,008 posts
    Thunderstruck said:

    therealkramer said:

    I see at least one corp has the market at 130%, so if the emergencies are scratched, it's ~9c deductions. You certainly wouldn't be backing the fav($2.35) now unless you're happy with $2.25





    Western Empire scr so Tabtouch wound IG from 2.45 into 2.20 on, TCTS 8 into 7, DTS 7.50 into 6.5.
    As far as i know deductions apply to emergencies?
    Sportsbet definitely had deductions(5c) for Western Empire

    +1 -1
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