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  • hashhash    7,495 posts
    Kelinni is only 50-50 to run in the Lexus Stakes with trainer Chris Waller preparing to take the odds on him gaining a Melbourne Cup start.

    The withdrawal on Friday of Silent Achiever moved Kelinni to 23rd in the Cup order of entry but Saturday’s Lexus and Mackinnon winners gain automatic entry.

    Waller said he would prefer not to run Kelinni in the Lexus (2500m) which was the race that propelled him into the 2012 Cup in which he ran fourth, but was still considering the situation late on Friday.

    “It’s 50-50,” Waller said.

    “He would have to win the Lexus to ensure a start and I would rather not run him tomorrow.

    “If he doesn’t get into the Cup, so be it.

    “We’ve always got the Queen Elizabeth Stakes next week.”

    Waller has until 7.30 on Saturday morning to make the final decision on the Lexus.

    Kelinni’s performance in last year’s Cup gave Sydney’s premier trainer a taste of what it could be like to win Australia’s most famous race.

    He has Hawkspur and Foreteller safely in the field and Mackinnon Stakes winner Moriarty just outside the final 24.

    Kelinni’s preparation was interrupted by a slight bout of colic in September but Waller was boosted by his ninth in Caulfield Cup, less than three lengths from the winner Fawkner, which showed he was back on track.



    Read more: http://www.justhorseracing.com.au/news/australian-racing/kelinni-50-50-to-run-in-the-lexus-stakes/233429#ixzz2jOcRENTm
  • They have  the right  horses this time get the feeling we will see something very special on tuesday.

  • hashhash    7,495 posts
    You referring to Waller and hawkspur mailman? C'mon spill it, tip?
  • BlacksAFakeBlacksAFake    2,379 posts
    Overseas horse by sounds of it
  • thefalconthefalcon    20,485 posts
    i bet boss rides ruscello....if it starts which i think it will.
  • LuckyLongshotsLuckyLongshots    4,270 posts
    Perfect run by Dear Demi, as a leadup to Tuesday 

    Bondyjnr likes this post.

  • PCPC    2,265 posts
    The current ballot/order of entry for the Cup:

    The top 24 currently:


    Fawkner
    Ruscello
    Dunaden
    Green Moon
    Red Cadeaux
    Sea Moon
    Super
    Cool Voleuse de Coeurs
    Fiorente
    Hawkspur
    Tres Blue
    Brown Panther
    Foreteller
    Ethiopia
    Dandino
    Verema
    Mourayan
    Seville
    Dear Demi
    Mount Athos
    Royal Empire
    Masked Marvel
    Simenon

    Ibicenco


     ----- Precedence-----




    So
    it appears that it all depends if Ruscello runs. If Ruscello runs then
    Precedence misses out but if Ruscello doesn't run then Precedence get's a
    run in the Cup.

  • FastmoneyFastmoney    4,912 posts
    Ruscello to run in the Melbourne Cup with Chad Schofield to ride.
  • darkshinesdarkshines    2,837 posts
    Sure better today, but disappointing to see an Ethiopia keep a non-pulling Precedence out.

    Bondyjnr, Aussiereds72, thefalcon likes this post.

  • PCPC    2,265 posts
    Bruce McAvaney asked the VRC chairman about if there was consideration
    about Precedence making the field and the chairman said that the only
    way Precedence could of made the field was that if any horse above him
    was out of form.

    So ask me this.........

    How Ethiopia make
    the field when his best result has been a fourth in the Lexus Stakes
    this campaign and also Ethiopia has not won since April 2012?

    Precedence has won twice this year - more then Ethiopia. In fact Precedence's last five starts has been two wins (at Group level) and one second.

    Bondyjnr likes this post.

  • tonytony    2,436 posts
    Ethiopia ran 4th in a group 2 today. By definition he is not out of form. Whether he is in better or worse form than Precedence is irrelevant.

    All trainers and owner know the conditions. The connections of Precedence decided to gamble on entry by not running today. They lost.

    If Precedence was trained by anyone but Bart this would not be an issue.

    TheFunkster likes this post.

  • PCPC    2,265 posts
    tony said:

    Ethiopia ran 4th in a group 2 today. By definition he is not out of form. Whether he is in better or worse form than Precedence is irrelevant.

    All trainers and owner know the conditions. The connections of Precedence decided to gamble on entry by not running today. They lost.

    If Precedence was trained by anyone but Bart this would not be an issue.

    The Lexus is not a Group 2, it's a Group 3. Ethiopia ran 4th in a Group 3 race.
  • WizardWizard    3,611 posts

    Last word - FORTELLER TO WIN

  • WizardWizard    3,611 posts

    Website playing up on me again.

    I believe Foreteller is the one.

  • TheFunksterTheFunkster    3,840 posts
    LL, I'm interested in your annual assessment?
  • tonytony    2,436 posts
    Mount Athos for me
  • WizardWizard    3,611 posts
    I think Mount Athos is the best horse in the race but he has got a bad draw and he hasn't done anything this year.
  • darkshinesdarkshines    2,837 posts
    Mount Athos is far too dour to win IMO. Will be putting in similar run to last year.
  • rot8inrot8in    1,881 posts
    if your going for MA..then you cant leave BP out.....im going totally wild.... I know its a couple years on and its 8...but im gonna have a small ew on red cardeaux..(nostalgia)....and will certainly be adding it in my multies...Red Cardeaux for me...now can someone tell me what weight Rd carried in 2011?

    Bondyjnr likes this post.

  • LuckyLongshotsLuckyLongshots    4,270 posts
    Wizard said:

    Last word - FORTELLER TO WIN

    I didn't say that - but reckon he'll be running on at the end.
  • LuckyLongshotsLuckyLongshots    4,270 posts

    LL, I'm interested in your annual assessment?

    Wasn't going to do it this year, but seeing it doesn't take much time to fill in the stats, I'll put it together and publish the results.

    I have done my own form assessment today - but it is so open, I'm just playing the novelties around my top 10 selections.
  • rot8inrot8in    1,881 posts
    and where is animal kingdom?

  • darkshinesdarkshines    2,837 posts
    Doubt you'll ever see a World Cup WINNER contest a Melb Cup?
  • rot8inrot8in    1,881 posts
    DS...as we gather more imports ...with higher ratings...is it that unforeseeable..??
     
  • thefalconthefalcon    20,485 posts
    rot babe..where have you been?
  • LuckyLongshotsLuckyLongshots    4,270 posts

    LL, I'm interested in your annual assessment?

    Here goes, the numbers are pretty convincing on a few runners - the rest no hope

    Three different calculations:

    FAWKNER (1st)
    Tres Blue (2nd)
    Fiorente/Dandino (3rd/4th)

    FAWKNER (1st)
    Tres Blue (2nd)
    Fiorente/Dandino/Ruscello/Royal Empire (3rd/4th/5th/6th)

    FAWKNER (1st)
    Voleuse De Coeurs/Dandino/Tres Blue (2nd/3rd/4th)
    Fiorente/Royal Empire/Simenon (5th/6th/7th)
    Ruscello/Verema/Dear Demi (8th/9th/10th)

    Pretty clear that if Fawkner runs the distance he is the one to beat!

    Good Luck everyone, bet to win!

    thefalcon, RIO likes this post.

  • LuckyLongshotsLuckyLongshots    4,270 posts
    Some of the reasons behind Fawkner being so high in the calculations

    Win strike rate of 45%
    Place strike rate of 75%

    Distance - not tested, so no good or bad

    Track form - 56% win/ 88% place strike rate

    5th best form in the race, based on my calculations -although he has been very good in his last three Group 1's - probably only Fiorente has better form in Group 1's

    Grade - highest rating possible
    Barrier - should suit
    Weight - pretty good
    Track rating (Dead4) - pretty good
  • TheFunksterTheFunkster    3,840 posts
    Well I hope your completely wrong this time as ive left him out of my first 4's entirely.
    My numbers are; 1. Verema, 2. Voleuse De Coeurs, 3. Dunaden, 4. Hawkspur.
    Fiorente, Foreteller & Dear Demi in the placings and Sea Moon, Brown Panther, Dandino, Seville, Royal Empire, Simenon & Tres Blue in the minor placings.
    Will be betting up e/w on Verema, hopefully the $20+ on the tote stays around 
    $-)
  • RIORIO    14,902 posts

    Some of the reasons behind Fawkner being so high in the calculations


    Win strike rate of 45%
    Place strike rate of 75%

    Distance - not tested, so no good or bad

    Track form - 56% win/ 88% place strike rate

    5th best form in the race, based on my calculations -although he has been very good in his last three Group 1's - probably only Fiorente has better form in Group 1's

    Grade - highest rating possible
    Barrier - should suit
    Weight - pretty good
    Track rating (Dead4) - pretty good
    what weight did you put on him being grey? Cos that is why i picked him
    ;)
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