BarakeyWest Australian Racing

LuckyLongshots

Well Colonel Reeves (1100m) is in 17 days and the Winterbottom 18 days later. Now rated 82, so may as well try and win the G3 Colonel Reeves, would certainly be rated high enough for the Winterbottom then.

[DeletedUser]

On the Perth Racing Website, Ranger and Waratahs Secret had a nail bitter !!
Is that a bitter struggle or a nail biter ? Who writes this stuff ?

ericwandu

said:

Correct, Dungy...again... :D The horse has only won 2 mid-weekers in the middle of bloody winter and they are talking of BC & Hay List.
You guys have got your maulers where they shouldn't be... :shock:

ericwandu

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said:

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Don't become too negative because of breeting...just think of Miss Andretti.
I heard an interview with John Hunt last week..looking forward to reading the book.

related to 2 stakes winners - breeding cant be that bad can it??


I hope next Saturday when Barakey steps out to run they make his race 6 - regardless of the field size

would be great to have this horse running at a peak time just after the Eastern States racing has finished so all of australia can get a good look at him

I reckon his horse needs to be pumped up as WA's next superstar or Black Caviar and try and get some extra people to the races

Looks a freak of an animal ultra impressive but cant see him pulling crowds like Black Cav just yet :lol: coming of the back of a couple of midweeks probably needs to win a Saturday race first of all then a stakes or Listed event or string 5 or 6 together Hay List won 8 straight and they didnt line up to see him

ericwandu

said:

A bit of common logic...good to see. :wink:

Rodent

Just a bit of perspective..........If yesterday's race were WFA (as is the Winterbottom), Mabel Grace would have met Barakey about 6.5kg better off for a 2.25L defeat. Mabel Grace for the Winterbottom?

Unknown

Barakey was being eased down with 100m to go tho Rodent

Rodent

said:

Barakey was being eased down with 100m to go tho Rodent

Sure, care to put a margin on that? Imho it is less than a length so still a valid point.

Unknown

Care to put a margin on the weight difference?

Rodent

said:

Care to put a margin on the weight difference?

There are many published "weight to margin" tables. At 2kg=1 length it puts Mabel Grace at least on par with Barakey.
I'm a fan of Barakey but the mare was handicapped 60kg whilst he had 55kg. He is improving but the way people are talking you'd think he carried the 60kg and she had 55.

Unknown

I havent heard anyone mentioned that anywhere? where have you been reading?

the horse is big and strong - extra weight wouldnt worry him, decrease may help Mabel grace a little but couldnt possibly think she would level up with him

Rodent

said:

I havent heard anyone mentioned that anywhere? where have you been reading?

the horse is big and strong - extra weight wouldnt worry him, decrease may help Mabel grace a little but couldnt possibly think she would level up with him

OK, so my next question is where do you rate Mabel Grace amongst WA sprinters?

Unknown

Mabel Grace is a good horse who when ridden well in a race with lots of tempo, like yesterday is capable of running a nice race.

She is however better over a bit further and connections wouldnt be aiming for any open sprint races

Rodent

said:

Mabel Grace is a good horse who when ridden well in a race with lots of tempo, like yesterday is capable of running a nice race.

She is however better over a bit further and connections wouldnt be aiming for any open sprint races

Thanks for that. I thought she must have been one of WA's premier sprinters but now that I look in the formguide I notice she was once placed at 2000m and she has won twice at 1600m. I must go look in the archives for the replays as I've only just started following WA racing.

dungy

said:

said:

said:

said:

Don't become too negative because of breeting...just think of Miss Andretti.
I heard an interview with John Hunt last week..looking forward to reading the book.

related to 2 stakes winners - breeding cant be that bad can it??


I hope next Saturday when Barakey steps out to run they make his race 6 - regardless of the field size

would be great to have this horse running at a peak time just after the Eastern States racing has finished so all of australia can get a good look at him

I reckon his horse needs to be pumped up as WA's next superstar or Black Caviar and try and get some extra people to the races

Looks a freak of an animal ultra impressive but cant see him pulling crowds like Black Cav just yet :lol: coming of the back of a couple of midweeks probably needs to win a Saturday race first of all then a stakes or Listed event or string 5 or 6 together Hay List won 8 straight and they didnt line up to see him

And your point ??? Does he pull 35k crowds ???

Unknown

Ascot cant fit 35k dungy

ericwandu

There's your 5 straight and Saturday race. Bet if pike rode him you'd dry root him if you could. Hey ill make a bet with you he beats that 8 straight hay list did.

dungy

said:

There's your 5 straight and Saturday race. Bet if pike rode him you'd dry root him if you could. Hey ill make a bet with you he beats that 8 straight hay list did.

What odds buddy :lol: :lol:
Mate your missing the point which happens quite a lot in your case i said early days lets get him to open company then start calling him a superstar which he is now i just wasnt gonna wrap him up after a few midweekers even though they were impressive and not keen on the dry root :wink: :wink: J Brown doesnt do it for me if you think Barakey will drag 35k through the gate your on another planet which you probably are s Hay List won 8 straight and there were not lined up Matheson rd to get in if i remember

Unknown

dungy just because you are not a good judge and cant spot a class horse before it gets there does not mean you should downgrade the comments of others

Barakey is clearly the best horse racing in WA at the moment - whether he brings 1 million through the gates doesnt make any difference

Im sure Pike doesnt bring 35k through the gates either but we can still admire in his quality riding

ericwandu

well said bc.

we had to sit here and listen to you dungy tell us it had done nothing until it had won 5 straight and sat race.

well thats done

blind freddy knew this was the next star.

hey dungy didnt you just say it coulda broken the track record.

hmmm

we will go even money 100 that he wins 8 straight.

Dark

said:

Just a bit of perspective..........If yesterday's race were WFA (as is the Winterbottom), Mabel Grace would have met Barakey about 6.5kg better off for a 2.25L defeat. Mabel Grace for the Winterbottom?

There are many studies that have concluded weight cant be converted to lengths.

IMO its almost useless, I've ran many simulations through my database and every time the results have been WORSE when they've been adjusted for weight.

Granted the more weight you add to a horse to carry will eventually start to slow it down, but the more weight you take off certainly will not keep speeding it up.

Rodent

said:

said:

Just a bit of perspective..........If yesterday's race were WFA (as is the Winterbottom), Mabel Grace would have met Barakey about 6.5kg better off for a 2.25L defeat. Mabel Grace for the Winterbottom?

There are many studies that have concluded weight cant be converted to lengths.

IMO its almost useless, I've ran many simulations through my database and every time the results have been WORSE when they've been adjusted for weight.

Granted the more weight you add to a horse to carry will eventually start to slow it down, but the more weight you take off certainly will not keep speeding it up.

Physics is a myth. Isaac Newton was a bullshit artist :shocked:

Dark

DANNY BEAU ran 56.19 carrying 58.5KG over 1000. Using your (and the rest of the crowds) formula how fast would he have ran if he carried 50KG's?

Rodent

I don't know but I can guarantee he'd have gone quicker.
Have you ever seen a riderless horse galloping 10 deep and still win easily? I've seen horses at long odds do it. Those jockeys and pesky gravity sure do slow them down.

carey

said:

I don't know but I can guarantee he'd have gone quicker.

maybe

Dark

Would have gone 55.49 - does that sound conceivable?

Rodent

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said:

I don't know but I can guarantee he'd have gone quicker.

maybe

I can guarantee he wouldn't have gone slower then :lol:

Dark

That I agree with.

Rodent

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Would have gone 55.49 - does that sound conceivable?

I said quicker, not by how much. It's variable. It's what makes some people better judges than others. They know what's conceivable and what isn't. They know when weight matters a lot and when it matters a little. It will always matter though.

carey

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Would have gone 55.49 - does that sound conceivable?

I said quicker, not by how much. It's variable. It's what makes some people better judges than others. They know what's conceivable and what isn't. They know when weight matters a lot and when it matters a little. It will always matter though.

could go faster or lower i suppose, because it would depend on all sorts of things.
you would probably be more correct if you phrased it as easier rather than quicker.
that said i think weight is probably 3 or 4th most important variable, because even if you can't be exact for any one horse in any particular circumstance, i am 100% sure i can value the effect of weight on AVERAGE