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Karrakatta Plate

West Australian Racing
bradybrady    1,463 posts
West Australian Racing
Watch Me Dance
With Shooter on Board has to be a big Chance ?
+1 -1

watchmedance likes this post.

Comments

  • ThunderstruckThunderstruck    7,696 posts
    Of running a place yes! With even luck the fave looks a spesh for the Pontiff.

    spinking likes this post.

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  • bradybrady    1,463 posts
    Thunderstruck said:

    Of running a place yes! With even luck the fave looks a spesh for the Pontiff.



    A lot more top end Pressure in this Race
    Could see the undoing of The Fav


    +1 -1
  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    10,942 posts
    edited April 2020
    Only a small % to play with, but I'm going two of them for a place @thunder, both over $3 a drum, Dom To Shoot from the in form Casey stable, and American Choice with the, well he's always in form Willy Pike on board.

    Think at least one of them can fill top three.
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  • ChrisChris    5,734 posts
    Cracking day

    Thunderstruck likes this post.

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  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    10,942 posts
    edited April 2020
    By small % meant only getting about 4/6 that one of Dom To Shoot or American Choice runs a ticky, but the good news better than 5/1 if both of them can! Unlikely though, but will be surprised if both miss out just the same.
    +1 -1
  • SKIDSSKIDS    1,006 posts
    I'm sticking with Starfield Impact.

    I think the 10 & 11 at odds can be about the place and will throw them in a few 1st 4's (jackpot)
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  • hashhash    7,495 posts
    Starfield Impact even from that horrible gate?
    In a high pressure race it’s going to need plenty of luck, I’ll be treating is as scr

    Nevershowsurprise dislikes this post.

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  • SKIDSSKIDS    1,006 posts
    edited April 2020
    The wide gate over the 1200 isn't that bad. There's what, 600m to the turn.

     Since 2018 - Barrier 14 has a 9% win rate over the distance, the best is barrier 2, with 11.9%. 4 & 11 are next best with 10.9%. 10 is next at 10.3%. Gate 7 (Gemmas Son) has an 8.9% win rate.

    This season barrier 14 is the most succesful barrier over 1200m with a win rate of 37.5%
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  • SKIDSSKIDS    1,006 posts
    edited April 2020
    The 2018 above should be since 2008.

    This year, 2020, the 14 barrier is the most successful over 1200m with a win rate of 75%, 10 is the next best with 25%... barrier 1 has a 3% win rate,

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  • RodentRodent    7,470 posts
    Tinsnip was an $81 pop and was only beaten 0.4L last year from barrier 16.
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  • ThunderstruckThunderstruck    7,696 posts
    If a couple foolishly pour it on then the fav could even get the 1/1 which would be better than breezing/leading imo.The other two favoured runners are going to be giving away a fair start you would think..and be tracking fairly deep to make their runs for glory.

    I'm Confused @Skids is it 37.5% or 75%? think u will find its 37.5% i.e 8 starts 3 wins this season.I'd like to know which 3 horses have won from this gate(and from where in running)if I was basing a bet on that reasoning..i will say though that with the right run and lots of speed on SI can charge late and if weights are your thing it meets Watch Me Dance 2kg better.

    I see your other first 4 "specs" have drawn wide too geez your keen mate..good luck.
    If Dark Watch can settle better and have a clear run it can figure in the top 4 at 40s+ may as well throw it in too :D
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  • SKIDSSKIDS    1,006 posts
    It's 75% for this year, 2020, 37.5% for the season so far (Since August 2019).

    The thing is, I don't think a wide gate is that bad from the 1200m chute at Ascot, the 1000m is a different story, but the 12, they can win from any barrier. 
    Starfield Impact is a gritty thing, hasn't done much wrong.
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  • jumjum    3,581 posts
    Favourite JUST WINS. It is that good

    spinking, Manchild, H-BOMBER likes this post.

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  • spinkingspinking    4,001 posts
    with you Jum

    Chris likes this post.

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  • hashhash    7,495 posts
    SKIDS said:

    The 2018 above should be since 2008.

    This year, 2020, the 14 barrier is the most successful over 1200m with a win rate of 75%, 10 is the next best with 25%... barrier 1 has a 3% win rate,




    You should have applied a filter to those stats skids and found out how many win in high pressure black type races not 7 horse fields full of maidens :-??
    +1 -1
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