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Belmont Preview, 22nd June
West Australian Racing
PerthTurfTalk
3,054 posts
Race 1 – Kepler
With the Eagles, Socceroos and Royal Ascot treble on the horizon, time is limited so we’ll keep this short and sweet.
Not since Kepler Bradley went down clutching his knee on that fateful night in 2013, has a sporting figure returned from a knee injury with such gusto. Fire And Rain has absolutely dazzled in trials and looks to have come back bigger and better than ever. Should find the front here with Braggadocios the main danger hiding on his back.
I have never really been a massive Kiss The Breeze fan and from barrier 9, I can’t see a possible way she wins. With a stack of pace underneath, she will more than likely be snagged back to last and be running on late. There is no way she should be able to reel off sectionals quick enough to grab Fire And Rain. Artie’s Jewels rounds out the chances.
Selections
1 Fire And Rain
5 Braggadocios
2 Kiss The Breeze
Suggested Bet: 50 wins Fire And Rain (1).
Race 2 - Class Will Prevail
Rockon Tommy is one of my better bets for the day. His last two efforts against Roganella & Arcadia Prince were full of merit when leading on hot tempos and giving good kicks on straightening. I suspect with the Disruptive, Shania Style and The Nicconian speed drawn underneath him, the in-form Peter Knuckey will be happy taking a sit at the more suitable 1200m.
Was hoping to shop around the $5 mark, so the $4.40 early is close to what we want. Confident class prevails here and will see Tommy too strong for this lot late.
Selections
7 Rockon Tommy
4 Disruptive
6 Shania Style
Suggested Bet: 70 wins Rockon Tommy (7).
Race 3 – More Miller
A really good betting race with plenty of contrasting form lines.
It is hard to go past Alpha Sky after a reasonable effort against the top three-year olds. I suspect there might be a touch more aggression with the tactics here. Three starts ago Pike rode him, when leading and defeating Roganella quite comfortably.
Atlanta Blue sizzled over the final 200m in her clash with the very smart River Dance & Stageman. This is easier, but there are question marks over getting the right run for young apprentice Tayla Stone. In saying this, she is our form apprentice.
Prying Tom absolutely savaged the line at his most recent outing, while Lorentinio went around at $180/1 last start (this dickhead went win only) when running a credible third to Sovereign Trade. Nothing else on pace in that event stuck on well. Really liked that run.
Selections
3 Alpha Sky
6 Lorentinio
1 Atlanta Blue
Suggested Bet: No bet.
Race 4 – Fabulous Fabby
Fabergino is creating quite the buzz in WA and despite racing the older horses for the first time here, I suspect she’ll get the job done.
Has not been tested in her two wins this campaign and it will be interesting to see if the very smart Super Maxi can hold up and make her work in the breeze. There is still the question mark on whether Fabergino has another gear. At the $1.50 on offer, I’m not willing to find out in a financial sense.
Snow Lord flies over the 1000m and should be rounding out your trifecta. In the very unlikely chance the top two over cook it, Pike will have this gelding in position A.
Selections
4 Fabergino
1 Super Maxi
2 Snow Lord
Suggested Bet: No bet.
Race 5 – At My Witts End
Not my best race name. Makes no real sense, as the appointment of Kate Witten makes complete sense with the 59.5kgs here. Moving on…
This looks an absolute special IF (so much emphasise on this word) Kate can get a run. Last start sat four-deep throughout when going down by under 4 lengths to Super Maxi. They have then vetted her to see what went wrong? What? Let me tell you what went wrong. She covered 10 more lengths than the rest of the field!! There is not even a ‘raced wide throughout’ in the steward’s report. Stewards, please.
Misty Metal is in good form in the lower grades, but like Des Headland is a complete and utter front runner. When the going gets tough, he gets held to 8 touches and spends the next month in the WAFL. Easy to play decent footy when you have Voss, Akermanis & Black around you… Felt good getting that impromptu rant out.
Denim Pack is flying while Cardup Legend returns from over two years off. Good luck to connections.
Selections
1 Speeding Comet
2 Denim Pack
9 Little Hercules
Suggested Bet: 80 wins Speeding Comet (1) – Wins only as she either gets held up and misses completely or gets through and wins.
Race 6 – Guineas
Happy narrowing this down to three main chances in Roganella, Necklet & Mizlecki.
Roganella is clearly the horse to beat after drawing barrier 1 and meeting his rivals at significantly better weights. From barrier 1 should enjoy a run on the back of Lickety Split or Misty Lad. Paul Harvey concerns me a bit in the saddle and I worry from the inside gate that he might find some clearance issues.
Mizlecki is flying and Jerry Noske goes back on. She will jag him out to last and be the one running the quickest last 400m. Necklet was disappointing last start and it is hard to see him turning the tables on Roganella with the weight swing against him.
Debellatio and State Prosecutor are knockout hopes.
Selections
8 Mizlecki
2 Roganella
9 Necklet
Suggested Bet: No bet.
Race 7 – Lord Bolton
Without causing offence to the connections of Mr Motown, to see him winning a listed race made it quite easy to put a pencil (not pen) line through that form. It couldn’t have been the strongest form race in the world. Durendal is now officially the biggest bridesmaid since Daniel Kowalski (this is a Kieran Perkins continually beating him joke, not anything else) and I don’t think that will change.
Rebel King is the one who comes in to this event on the back of a very soft trial. Won fresh last time in when defeating Battle Hero and I suspect he will be going very close again here.
The way Pretentious Chant finished off last start, is another reason to look at the Beaufine form line as more of a 78+ than a black type race.
Selections
4 Rebel King
2 Profit Street
1 Durendal
Suggested Bet: 80 wins Rebel King (4).
Race 8 – Gift Horse
Fittingly the corporates are putting prices up for the final event of the day, just as I land on it. Sovereign Trade was my best of the day a fortnight ago and didn’t let us down with a soft victory coming from a long way back. The race really was set up for him that day and the Prying Tom, Lorentinio, Mongolian Warlord form-line going forward will definitely be questionable. I do see this Bernie Miller gelding as a progressive type however.
The drop back to 1300m from the 1400m and the rise in grade has turned me off putting him on top here and I will be confidently tipping against him with my best bet of the day in Minus Looks.
Had a month freshen up before returning to his fortress at Belmont Park where he boasts an outstanding record. Sat deep throughout but boxed on admirably (even more so given the gap between runs) to be beaten two lengths to River Dance.
The barrier is a little sticky, though I do think with the potential speed of Great Again & Gunnago coming across from out wide, he should be able to tuck into a nice spot. He is quicker early than the majority of the 8 horses drawn underneath him. $15 has gone up – don’t look a gift horse in the mouth!
Tellem We’re Comin is the lay of the day, while for those who enjoy a save Sovereign Hall at $8.50 once again looks very backable.
Selections
9 – Minus Looks
4 – Sovereign Trade
13 – Great Again
Suggested Bet: 50 wins and 50 places Minus Looks (9).
Comments
R1. KISS THE BREEZE... Thank you I will.
R2. SHANIA STYLE... Time will prevail
R3. PRYING TOM.... B_ack Tom
R4. FABERGINO... Fab flying machin oooo
R5. YOU WATCHING ME... I'm watching you!! We all are!
R6. ROGANELLA... Allenagor?
R7. FLYING TIME... Just fly this time for me.. please?
R8. GUNNAGO... And it's time for udontknow to gunnago home now.
B-)
I'm off OS for 3 weeks; so my summary thoughts today.
R/1 Like the tipster I worry about KTB with slow past sectionals and wide barrier.
Iike the LS Bracca hors but the odds seem too good. F and R is so short; prob the winner!
R/2 I have a real hunch about Beat the Bell; maybe too short a distance last time.
R/3 Atalanta Blue and Lorntinio here for me.
I did well out of the alpha horse when he won; but he seems to have lost a notch and up against the older horses here
R4/I really think the Maxi horse can beat the 3yo fave here.
R5/ I don't like this raffle race !
R/6 Roganella and Mizlecki stand out; but I give the Butterfly horse a real good chance here
R/7 One of my fave horses Profit Street with bar shoes was so disappointing last time; so I have to stick to Mr Motown; he can burn across to be outside the leader and keep going.
Rebel King and Pretentious are in.
R/8 Minus Looks, Gunnago and Sovereign Trade are the 3 here.
Good Luck all!
R8/
The real Profit Street to stand and deliver!
If that fails hopefully earlier on a 1 x 4 basis the consistent Denim Pack will mow them down over the 1000 metres.
hash likes this post.
No comfort zone for fabergino that's for sure. Super will break her today.
No these are my selections. I thought id just add on some bull$#it on the end lol
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kissed the breeze 3 wide the whole race like its name suggested lol
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