Ascot Easter Friday 14/4/17

carey · April 2017

Fastmoney said:
Sally Snow is TAB`s Senior bookmaker.

thanks fm, i plead guilty to never having watched racing shows or listening to it on the radio.
last time i talked to dom the other month, it was just me talking hooded plovers!! =))
racing bores the crap out of me these days.

thefalcon · April 2017

^^^ but I bet you have great memories, carey.

carey · April 2017

thefalcon said:
^^^ but I bet you have great memories, carey.

racing is probably the reason i am so anti social, because i would just
sit in front of a computer all day trying to think up new factors and/or set probs, and nothing much else.
that's also why i like walking all day on often remote beaches.
it's just me and my thoughts and the endangered birds i try to help, usually.

if i'm not out in the bush/beach, all i still do is sit in front of a computer, and even though the racing itself is of no interest to me, it is still a jigsaw puzzle that needs to be solved.
the money does not interest me, and was never why i did it in the first place.

i probably regret being so anti social, but i'm too old to change now.
it's done.

so no, i don't really have any lasting great memories about it.
certainly nothing to remotely compare, with what those people that have gatting had on saturday.

thefalcon · April 2017

you are a very interesting fellow, carey....a few hours having a chat over a brew would be enlightening.

sonny · April 2017

Hi Carey, What about self satisfaction when you got it right ?

carey · April 2017

sonny said:
Hi Carey, What about self satisfaction when you got it right ?

does one get it right?
to be honest i have never made selections as such, all i have done is allot probs.
the biggest wins i have ever had, were not necessarily from the horse i thought would win, but from one of those at a longer price than i thought it should be.

probably my most satisfying(not the biggest though) one, was on track at a lowly midweek meeting when i still used to go.
a horse called sauna trained by lee freedman and ridden by gauci, in a restricted race for 3yo fillies way back in i think '84
it's very first run was in an open 3yo race at flemington and it was only beaten a length and a bit after what i perceived a torrid run.
anyway, for this lowly race i had it priced at 1/4, which i don' think i had ever done that short before.
bookies opened up at 4/1 from memory, then it went to 5/1 to 6/1 to 7/1 to 8/1 in a hurry.
couldn't believe my eyes.
and there is a lesson there if you can see it.....don't let price sway you, if you have done the work then your opinion should be ALL that matters.
why toss up the chance to get humungous overs, just because the bookies take a set against it, or the other punters were not backing it because they never saw what you saw?

anyway the people putting my bets on averaged 6/1 i think, and as we only dealt in cash those days, quite a few of the bookies did not have enough to pay us, and were forced to borrow from other bookies, although it took to the end of the day till we got paid(it was race 3 from memory)
sticks in my memory because the other 3yo filly race was won by 'our tootsie' or 'toot toot tootsie'(i always confused those two which were same age and sex), i had that winner priced at 2/1 and got 10/1.
and a couple of other lesser wins too on the day.
days like that don't come that often.
usually it's just a grind, but every so often you get the great days.

but, i think i would rather have stayed a printing tradesman to be honest.
circumstances meant that i had to give it away when still a young bloke.

hash · April 2017

carey said:

sonny said:
Hi Carey, What about self satisfaction when you got it right ?
does one get it right?

and there is a lesson there if you can see it.....don't let price sway you, if you have done the work then your opinion should be ALL that matters.
why toss up the chance to get humungous overs, just because the bookies take a set against it, or the other punters were not backing it because they never saw what you saw?

these days the money trail usually tells a huge tale, more so when a horse drifts dramatically... we all know how easy it would be back a horse in and have the public jump on board creating false favourites... but when a horse drifts alarmingly there's usually something a miss or something they know we dont

SKIDS · April 2017

Friday is fly day and this week the bird is heading in the right direction!
Go the Pies, that's my religion

detonator · April 2017

SKIDS said:
Friday is fly day and this week the bird is heading in the right direction!
Go the Pies, that's my religion

Thought this thread was Ascot Easter Friday ?
Not MCG Easter Friday.
Pies ??? Keep praying mate !!!

carey · April 2017

hash said:

carey said:

sonny said:
Hi Carey, What about self satisfaction when you got it right ?
does one get it right?

and there is a lesson there if you can see it.....don't let price sway you, if you have done the work then your opinion should be ALL that matters.
why toss up the chance to get humungous overs, just because the bookies take a set against it, or the other punters were not backing it because they never saw what you saw?

these days the money trail usually tells a huge tale, more so when a horse drifts dramatically... we all know how easy it would be back a horse in and have the public jump on board creating false favourites... but when a horse drifts alarmingly there's usually something a miss or something they know we dont

if that's what you reckon then who am i to argue?
the money trails these days are MINUTE compared to the old days.

if you have done the work and nothing has changed, except your horse has gone out the door, then it 'might' mean something has gone wrong, or it's not a goer, it also might mean lots of money in your pocket.
if you ignore all the hard work you put in per-race because of easing price, then you probably should not be doing it in the first place, because you don't have CONVICTION.
for a punter self belief is everything.

probably nearly everything in a race eases anyway, because the overrounds are far bigger when betting starts than when it finishes.

Sticks · April 2017

carey said:

hash said:

carey said:

sonny said:
Hi Carey, What about self satisfaction when you got it right ?
does one get it right?

and there is a lesson there if you can see it.....don't let price sway you, if you have done the work then your opinion should be ALL that matters.
why toss up the chance to get humungous overs, just because the bookies take a set against it, or the other punters were not backing it because they never saw what you saw?

these days the money trail usually tells a huge tale, more so when a horse drifts dramatically... we all know how easy it would be back a horse in and have the public jump on board creating false favourites... but when a horse drifts alarmingly there's usually something a miss or something they know we dont
if that's what you reckon then who am i to argue?
the money trails these days are MINUTE compared to the old days.

if you have done the work and nothing has changed, except your horse has gone out the door, then it 'might' mean something has gone wrong, or it's not a goer, it also might mean lots of money in your pocket.
if you ignore all the hard work you put in per-race because of easing price, then you probably should not be doing it in the first place, because you don't have CONVICTION.
for a punter self belief is everything.

probably nearly everything in a race eases anyway, because the overrounds are far bigger when betting starts than when it finishes.

could not agree more carey - the best thing you can do as a punter is stick to your own opinion. If you have done the work trust yourself!

Yes there are horses that drift alarmingly and something is 'off' and don't win. But there are also times where a horse drifts alarmingly and still wins. Back yourself. Sometimes you're wrong sometimes you're right. Just hopefully you are right more often then you are wrong!

hash · April 2017

if a jockey decides he will let your horse sit 3 deep from barrier 2, have it miss the start and be tailed out 5 lengths behind the second last horse over 950m,

or racing first up on the back of 2 x 10L trial wins (in a 2 horse trial)....

then there's my personal fav "it's been flying in trackwork" (yeah with a Shetland pony) then you can study and watched multiple replays etc etc but it means bugger all on the day, if the stable, staff, owner and spies know something us punters don't then all that study on form means nothing

Sticks · April 2017

hash said:
if a jockey decides he will let your horse sit 3 deep from barrier 2, have it miss the start and be tailed out 5 lengths behind the second last horse over 950m,
or racing first up on the back of 2 x 10L trial wins (in a 2 horse trial)....
then there's my personal fav "it's been flying in trackwork" (yeah with a Shetland pony) then you can study and watched multiple replays etc etc but it means bugger all on the day, if the stable, staff, owner and spies know something us punters don't then all that study on form means nothing

correct - but they don't always get it right either. I can't count the number of times I have been told a horse will not lose because the trainer/jockey have said it's unbeatable.

hash · April 2017

your insane if you've ever taken a trainers word :P

Ridersonthestorm33 · April 2017

Have a similar story to Carey ( doesn't end quite so well )....must have been about 1996 there was this horse named Woodish going around in a very good sprint field at Moonee Valley think over about the 1200 metres was close to 200/1 anyway he had a chequered sort of run up the straight ran about 8th nobody would have taken any notice of a 200/1 chance beaten by a reasonable margin , but this was not like your normal rank outsider , thought this horse hit the line with a bit in the tank...hmmm interesting. Might look out for this in the future...within a couple of weeks or so has lobbed at Stoney Creek on a Monday or Tuesday...well I begged , borrowed and stole ( was a bank teller haha ) trouble was those days for me could only get set on the tote....spread the money out through win place trifecta doubles quinellas exactas...you name it!
They jump away...one horse has bungled the start by about 2 or 3 lengths of course it's Woodish....never ceased to get into trouble from then on powered home to go down by a neck. I got the quinella for some units and the trifecta but if had won could have painted the town red!
But @Hash there is value in watching replays...still think it's as a good way to slant the odds in your favour. However like so many things that are worthwhile does take time and discipline.

RIO · April 2017

If having a serious bet...couldn't do it without replays

Ridersonthestorm33 · April 2017

Remember vividly as a budding punter always staying until after the last race at Ascot or Belmont and waiting for the replays of the day's racing to come on...some days it was cold and wet or stinking hot...but win lose or draw ( and it was bloody hard if you lost ) would hang back to watch the replays...what I noticed also was that quite a few local bookies would do the same...thought to myself if it's good enough for them it's good enough for me. Guess it's just a part of doing the form but believe an important part. ( Not that I'm a successful punter - far from it! )

Gray · April 2017

RACE 1

We start this Good Friday meeting with a very tricky maiden. KIM’S CALL produced an eye-catching first-up run where she settled at the rear and rail through strongly to get into second late. From a middle draw expecting she settle much closer in running and get her chance. INIMITABLE hasn’t been beaten far in either run. From gate 1 Daniel Staeck should have her stalking the speed. HURRICANE JACK has always shown some ability and on met good betting support in a number of his runs. He hasn’t trialled for his return so betting will be a good guide to his chances. HAYAN LAD has the car park barrier draw to overcome but showed enough on debut to suggest he has some ability.

Numbers – 9 -12 – 2 – 13

Suggested Bet – KIM’S CALL WIN

RACE 2

Happy to isolate this to two main winning chances namely RECOILED and WAR IN PARIS. With Pike engaged on WAR IN PARIS I’ll go his way. She should be able to get a drag just behind the speed and be hard to hold out. RECOILED is bashing the door down to break a big winning drought. He’s clearly the danger. INCREDIBLE HULK is racing well at the provincials. AEROZINE will lead and can fall into the first four.

Numbers – 2 – 1 – 7 – 5

Suggested Bet – WAR IN PARIS AND RECOILED

RACE 3

Very good sprint race. SWEET ORA raced flat first-up. She got off the speed and never figured. She’s much better than that and expecting some big improvement off that run and the fact she has drawn 1 means she should be in a position to strike. GLIMMER GIRL was an impressive last start winner. The short sprints with tempo on appear her perfect set-up. NEXT GENERATION is in career best form the drop back to 1100m is the only query. TRADE MARK trialled well for his return.

Numbers – 1 -3 – 2 – 5

Suggested Bet – SWEET ORA WIN

RACE 4

This appears a terrific race for the powerful four-year-old, BERGIO. There should be good tempo which he craves and with Pike on he can get over the top of these. TONKATUFF put away an average lot in style last start. He looks the clear second pick in the race. BLACK FREDA can fill a hole by tagging the speed. TUCKY’S LAD has place claims.

Numbers – 4 – 3 – 8 – 7

Suggested Bet – BERGIO WIN

RACE 5

Happy to forgive SWIFT PLATINUM for his first-up effort where he was unable to find the front over 1000m and never got into the race. The step up to 1200m is ideal and I think he can land straight in front, dictate terms and prove very hard to run down. YOUNG GINA resumes from a spell off the back of a strong trial effort. His only start last campaign produced a powerful win where he beat a subsequent winner. RADIANT GIRL is hard to catch but has claims. MEGA MINX is racing well.

Suggested – 2 – 6 -5 – 9

Suggested Bet – SWIFT PLATINUM WIN (SUPER PICK PROFIT PLUS)

RACE 6

There is a bit of depth to this sprint. FLOYD steps up to the 1200m for the first time which is a slight query however he is a three-year-old with immense promise and suspect he can run it out strongly. MY GRACE is a filly blessed with a big late finish. If they over cook it upfront she’ll be hard to hold out. JUST ACT NATURAL returns from a freshen-up. If he’s tuned up and ready to go he’ll give a big sight on the speed. STAR GLITTER continues to race well.

Numbers – 9 – 11 – 1 – 5

Suggested Bet – FLOYD WIN

RACE 7

Really keen on the chances of DEBELLATIO to take out this year’s WA Sires Produce Stakes. He was caught wide in the Perth Stakes and then just lacked some early dash in the Karrakatta Plate however he really finished off his final furlong with some power. Provided he can be within striking distance on turning think he’ll be too strong. MONEY MAHER comes from weaker races however it looks like he’s crying out for the 1400m. From gate 3 Joseph Azzopardi can have him in a lovely stalking position behind the speed. LUCY MAE is looking for a historic treble after winning the Magic Millions and Karrakatta. If she can control the speed (good chance she will) then she will take some catching. KISS BANG LOVE won the Gimcrack in style before racing without any luck in the Karrakatta. Pike sticks and she has claims.

Numbers- 1 – 4 – 6 -7

Suggested Bet – DEBELLATIO WIN

RACE 8

This is a very weak staying race to finish the program. REEF KEEPER looks a progressive type who comes off a dominant maiden win. From gate 5 he should park right behind the speed and have a better turn of foot than his rivals. OUTSPOKEN DUKE is off the quick back-up from last week where he got too far back in running. Expecting he will settle much closer from a better draw. DELANTERO is limited but this is a weak race. OUR MAORI BOY is a 22 start maiden but is racing well.

Numbers – 1 – 8 – 3 – 6

Suggested Bet – REEF KEEPER AND OUTSPOKEN DUKE

QUADDIE

5 – 2, 5, 6, 9

6 – 1, 5, 9, 11

7 – 1, 4, 6, 7

8 – 1, 3, 8.

detonator · April 2017

For what it's worth I am a "follow the money" type punter.
But having said that, Nat the Fyfe was a certainty after Markou's infamous ride (or non ride which ever way you want to look at it)
You would only know that if you watched the replay of race or read the heap of posts of the race on PTT.

hash · April 2017

it's not about following the money on horses that firm or get plunged in it's more so about watching the one's that drift alarmingly, that was my original point. @carey knows what I mean as he comments regularly on the provincial track threads... the further out bush they race they further these horses (that look good on paper) usually drift and run accordingly

Ridersonthestorm33 · April 2017

Must admit have noticed that too...some of the drifts ( on fancied runners ) and in the final few minutes of betting is almost staggering. Outer NSW and Victorian tracks have seen it to the extreme. 99.9% of the time yep they run accordingly. But are they drifting because they were unders anyway ? Or other runners overs ? Some of the well backed runners they run shockers too. Think some of these races way out in the bush are tricky at the best of times and markets can be volatile.

jum · April 2017

^^^^^^^^

=))

hash · April 2017

Saturday's LAY OF THE DAY courtesy of Peter McCormack
McCormack Says: “William Pike mount drawn outside Recoiled and Aerozine that is unlikely to lead those horses. Got away with a couple of weak races at Kalgoorlie last time in. Comes here first up after a less than inspiring trial and staggered she’s opened less than $3.00.”

Sticks · April 2017

Might actually put up some tips seeing as this is what the thread is about!! Haha

1) Kim's call
2) kaapander
3) glimmer girl/next generation - king of chaos at the big price too
4) bergio best bet of the day. Only danger tonkatuff
5) mega minx
6) my grace
7) Lucy Mae/kiss bang love
8) reef keeper

Gray · April 2017

Sticks said:
Might actually put up some tips seeing as this is what the thread is about!! Haha

1) Kim's call
2) kaapander
3) glimmer girl/next generation - king of chaos at the big price too
4) bergio best bet of the day. Only danger tonkatuff
5) mega minx
6) my grace
7) Lucy Mae/kiss bang love
8) reef keeper

cmon @Sticks, theres no room in this thread for tips LOL :))

Sticks · April 2017

Sorry @Gray , should have known better 8-}

sonny · April 2017

I think Pittsburgh Phil said, Money lost nothing lost confidence lost everything lost. If you follow the money you have to anticipate the market moves as you will be taking under the odds all the time.Market movers now have nothing on the moves in the 60's 70's and 80's.All the main players and bookmakers are gone...

runyon · April 2017

If your looking for a bit of value in Race 6, Travellin might be worth a couple of bob eachway. . Has 3 wins from 4 starts Second Up and 3 wins from 3 starts from Barrier 1.

thefalcon · April 2017

WARNING....BUMPED INTO A MATE WHOS NEIGHBOURS SON IS A COP...THEY ARE TARGETING ASCOT TOMORROW....

Jell · April 2017

Heading out to the track tomorrow. Being the degenerate gambler I am, I need to have an interest on each race. Serious bets have my stakes included, all others will be small cash bets at the TAB.

R1 #3 What's Up Doc - EW
R2 #4 Kaapandar - EW (heavy the place)
R3 #8 Fair Nakita 0.5u/1u @ 26/6
R4 #1 Forseen - EW (Small)
R5 #2 Swift Platinum - Win
R6 #2 Travellin' 1u/3u @ 11/2.8
R7 #9 Royal Strata - EW (teeny tiny)
R8 #4 Miss Meika - EW

G'day Punter!

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