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- Amtheone February 2017
- Chelsea February 2017
- Chris February 2017
- Fastmoney February 2017
- hash February 2017
- Jell February 2017
- jum February 2017
- loose_goose February 2017
- OliversTwist February 2017
- TheDiva February 2017
- thefalcon February 2017
- Thumper February 2017
- Thunderstruck February 2017
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Ascot 25th Feb - Winners & Losers
West Australian Racing
PerthTurfTalk
3,054 posts
Race 1
Why They Win – Eleven Seconds
Second attempt at 2200m should see him improved enough to give this a real shake. Was forced to tow the field up to pace-maker and serial pest Kirov Boy and by the time he reached the front the gauge read empty. Off a soft run behind likely leader I Done It he can prove too strong.
Why They Lose – Toppa Dawozza
Has only won 2 races from 44 and while he is a nice genuine type of galloper he lacks the killer blow necessary to win Saturday races. Is only a 65 rater so could easily contest a lot easier assignments than this and looks destined to run another encouraging minor placing without troubling the photographers in the winners’ enclosure.
Race 2
Why They Win – You Am I
Green, raw type still very new to racing who was sent back to trials by astute South West trainer Michael Lane for a couple of educational efforts over the short course. His most recent jump out over 600m was a grand effort knocking off Fine Scent, an unraced $210 000 All Too Hard filly who figures prominently in Karrakatta Markets. Looks a very good bet at $3.50.
Why They Lose – Riasc
Tipped by a number of reputable form analysts both on debut and first-up in the 2 year old Magic Millions race. While he was held up at crucial stages and forced into the wrong part of the water soaked Pinjarra track the effort was still only fair. Drawn awkwardly in barrier 10 he will likely concede a start to You Am I and spend the entire race looking at that galloper’s heels.
Race 3
Why They Win – Presentatie
Not an overly strong Bob Peters representative, yet to win in Western Australia and has a habit of missing the kick. From the wide draw Smith should settle her down last and she has, without doubt, the best turn of foot in this race. Comes from stronger form lines than the majority of this field and gets her best chance yet to notch a maiden WA victory coming off the back of a hot top end tempo.
Why They Lose – Universal Moon
Really lost her way over the past 18 months after building up a pretty handy career strike-rate. Has turned it around of late since David Harrison changed her training schedule, putting her over jumps, keeping her to 1000m and leading. She is drawn awkwardly, steps up to 1100m and loses the services of French hoop Mattieu Autier who has been able to successfully get her out of the gates recently.
Race 4
Why They Win – Just Act Natural
Deserves favoritism on the back of his all the way win in the Bunbury Sizzle defeating Miss Sondrio, Real Icon and subsequent winner Another Vision. Last start was well commissioned, drifted back in running over 1000m and never looked a threat. Back up to 1100m and drawn a gate to dominate the race on speed he looks the one to beat.
Why They Lose – Patrimonio
Has won all 3 of his career races first-up fresh. His last start effort behind Danefin was only average, he enjoyed the run of the race from barrier 1, had his chance to get out and make an impact on the race and failed to finish it off. This is arguably a step up in class and he looks under the odds.
Race 5
Why They Win – Gatting
On weights, ratings, sectional times and every measure under the sun he looks without doubt the best bet on the card. $3.40 was chewed up nationwide within minutes of markets opening and it would be no surprise to see him close closer to the $2.50 mark. His form around Precious Memories and then the older horses in Eleven Seconds and most recently Man Booker make him very, very hard to beat. He will be the shortest gelding in the Derby markets behind fillies Ellicazoom, Royal Star and Awaken and looks poised to notch his first Listed Victory.
Why They Lose – Sky Atlas
Ran a pretty handy mid week mile behind Fremond last start after grinding away first-up at 1400m behind Awesome As. That form is all questionable and without W.Pike in the saddle looks as though he is a step below the genuine winning chances.
Race 6
Why They Win – Spanged Impact
Probably has the ‘best’ form in a very evenly graded 3 year old 1200m. Her form beaten only 1 length in 72+ grade by Bombs Away and then less than a length by Salorsci and Precious Memories looks to be on paper the better form-lines in this race. Should enjoy a soft run from barrier 1 and make her presence felt.
Why They Lose – Bounce Down
Taking nothing away from Bounce Down who has won two on the Bounce and is piloted by one of the most in-form hoops Chris Parnham, however, has come up remarkably short at only $4. The win at Bunbury was in moderate time and then was handed the race on a platter in midweek grade on a ridiculously leader bias track with the rail at 15m. This is harder and he is under the odds.
Race 7
Why They Win – Pounamu
Anyone doing paper form will look at the weights from the last start victory of Pounamu when he defeated Tonto, Rosmartini, Already Famous, Falcon Crest and Temporise and think ‘well he just wins again’ and that’s probably how this race will pan out. My biggest concern is the fact he seems to run his best races fresh and potentially only 14 days between runs is not enough. That is clutching at straws because in his rich vein of form and down at a luxurious 55kg this race looks his for the taking.
Why They Lose – Already Famous
Ran his typical eye-catching first-up fresh sprint effort over 1600m against Pounamu when returning from a 2 month let up. He normally grinds away second-up from that sort of spacing so willing to risk him.
Race 8
Why They Win – Shady Gray
Excited to see the blinkers added to race gear for Shady Gray. 3 weeks between runs, 1500m back to 1100m, drawn an outside gate which dictates he will be ridden back in the field and blinkers added to race gear. At the $6 eachway Shady Gray can definitely win.
Why They Lose – Dezzies Dream
Has won 4 of her 5 career races first-up from a spell and without the services of William Pike looks to be the runner in the market which we can risk. I’ll be playing It’s It, Red Paddy and Shady Gray in the final leg of the quaddie.
Comments
hash likes this post.
i'll punt on Twelve Rounds who can win back to 1100, barrier 4 and Knuckey on.
Thunderstruck dislikes this post.
thefalcon likes this post.
Fastmoney, Tucool likes this post.
jum likes this post.
X_X and got burned
DamienWyer dislikes this post.
BlacksAFake likes this post.
Over weekends and non-business hours the limits on a horse are automatically shut once reached, so in theory if there is only $4 left before the limit held on a horse is reached then the max bet will be $4 until the horse is shortened.
Now as for flagged accounts thats a different story and I will not defend that. In my eyes flagged accounts are hypocrotical and utter crap. Corporates would never cut a punter off for losing too much....
Chelsea likes this post.
Allowing a fixed price to hit their limit and only reacting after multiple bets are limited is bad business.
Ridersonthestorm33 likes this post.
jum likes this post.