Perth Cup Weights

PC · December 2016

What happened to the favourite? Probably not good enough?

thefalcon · December 2016

blinkers on, blackie....

I have said before that the run in the vic. derby pharqued the horse and I still believe it. imo he could have been a stayer out of the box if they had not ventured east at what was his 4th or 5th start.

great effort to run 3rd but...........

tony · December 2016

From the stewards report

KIA ORA KOUTOU
Dwelt at the start, losing one length. Raced wide for the majority of the event.
A post race Veterinary examination revealed the gelding to have strained its near fore tendon

Nevershowsurprise · December 2016

Falcon dont worry about the Derby, I'm pretty sure it didn't win not because of a strained tendon but purely because it was on the front page of 2 news publications....

thefalcon · December 2016

:-??

dungy · December 2016

Fastmoney said:
Preview from Brisburgh Phil

Perth Cup 2016

Below are the last 8 winners of the Perth Cup (with relevant stats)
since the race became a 2400m event. The last figure in brackets is the
weight drop/gain from prior start.

2016 DELICACY 4M P. Hall (1) 59kg 1^st (1.5L) Cox Stakes (+3kg) $2.40 (f) 2015 REAL LOVE 4M W.Pike (4) 54kg 1^st Cox Stakes (-2kg) $2.40 (f)

2014 BLACK TYCOON 8G D.Oliver (5) 55.5kg 2.5L 4th Cox Stakes (-3.5kg) $5

2013 TALENT SHOW 6M Jarrad Noske (1) 53.5kg 3L 4th Cox Stakes (-3.5kg) $31

2012 WESTERN JEWEL 5M K.Yuill (1) 52kg 1st (2L) ATA Stakes (-5kg) $7

2011 GUEST WING 4G B.Parnham (8) 52kg 0.3L 2nd ATA Stakes (-2kg) $21

2010 LORDS RANSOM 6G A.Kennedy (2) 55.5kg 1st (1.8L) Cox Stakes (-3.5kg) $3

2009 GUYNO 5G J.Whiting (12) 54kg 6L 7th COx Stakes (-5kg) $9

Pertinent facts;

1. 7/8 dropped 2kg or more from prior start and 5/8 dropped more than 3.5kg (3)

2. Only one horse has carried more than 55.5kg to win (3)

3. 6/8 drew barriers 1-5 & 7/8 barriers 1-8 (3+2)

4. 3/8 sired by Jeune and 5/8 sired by a British born horse. (1)

5. Only 1 horse beaten more than 3L at it’s prior start and three
horses beaten 3L or more all ran in WFA Cox Stakes at prior start. (5)

6. Six winners have come out of WFA Cox Stakes (2100m) and 2 from ATA Handicap (2200m) (4,2)

7. 5 of 8 have been 5 years old or older but last 2 winners have been 4 year olds (2)

4/8 owned by Bob Peters and 3 of those have been mares (2)
Four of the last five winners have been mares (4/8 overall) (2)
10. Average winning price $11.20 (1)

The numbered figure in brackets is the points allocation for each
category. If you were to add up each of those after assigning to each
runner the top 5 chances would read this way;

Fathoms Of Gold/Zarantz (20 points each)
Tradesman/Dark Musket/Dubai Escapade (18 points each)

Close behind those are Ihtsahymn and Star Exhibit on 17 points so
it’s a very tough call with Perfect Reflection not too far behind on 15
points. Surprisingly the race favourite Kia Or Kouto scores very poorly
mainly because the race he comes out of hasn’t played any part in
providing the winner of this. Keep in mind though that it’s only an 8
year study and winning form is good form.

Analysis;

The Bob Peters owned PERFECT REFLECTION is looking to do what her
stablemate’s Delicacy (59kg) and Real Love (54kg) have been able to by
winning this the past two years as four year old mares. I would say the
general consensus is she is slightly better equipped than the latter
mare, but less credentialled than the former coming into this race. It
really looks a task for her to overcome 7kg weight deficits to many of
her defeated opponents from last start, because she wasn’t overly
dominant when beating most of them in the Ted Van Heemst Stakes
(formerly Cox Stakes). She has drawn to advantage though, and it does
look as though she can cope with the 2400m. And William Pike aboard is
always a bonus.

FATHOMS OF GOLD nearly caused one of the biggest upsets of all time
in that race setting up a massive lead in the race which had to come at a
cost. He was only just run down late, and you just wonder had his
jockey maybe maintained a 6-8 length lead throughout (rather than 15
lengths at one stage) what might have happened. It’s feasible a little
quieter ride could pay dividends this time, despite the 300m rise in
distance. He does have a sibling that has won to 2400m.

KIA ORA KOUTO- does look like a horse that will relish a fast pace
as his last win showed he was a grinding type of stayer staving off the
subsequent winner Star Exhibit who admmittedly had 1kg more weight. He
was ridden a bit upside down in that race, making a mid race move to sit
outside the leader. That won’t happen here but he should be very strong
at the end of the race if Fathoms Of Gold sets an expected strong temo.
I just query the preparation a little bit three weeks between runs, but
he might be just reaching his peak this preparation and his best effort
ever was in the VRC Derby when he placed after having a chequered
passage in the straight. It’s just possible he is the only horse with
the class to beat Perfect Reflection if this were a Weight For Age 2400m
race. Under that scale though he meets her 7kg better off. He also has
the Jeune breeding on his Dam’s side which is interesting given that
horses’ sire influence on this race.

DUBAI ESCAPADE is worth some thought in what could be a stamina test
at 2400m, merely because he has won at 3200m. There hasn’t been too much
wrong with his last two runs where he has lacked the necessary dash at
shorter distance. Once again he has drawn well though and the weight
drop and extra distance put him in with at least a place chance.

NEVERLAND is the other Bob Peters owned mare and we know she can run
the distance after having been runner up to Delicacy last year with the
same weight. She is a bit down on form though and has to overcome a bad
barrier. Blinkers go back on after a couple of starts without them.
Problem is she wasn’t doing great deal with them on, but I would expect
an improved effort all the same. A repeat effort of last year would
probably win this years edition.

STAR EXHIBIT- Is doing all the right things and just might have had a
better preparation for this race than the favourite Kia Ora Koutou, who
beat him the last time they met. He does meet that horse 1kg better
though and he did get pushed a bit wide in that race which might have
made the difference between a win and a loss. His win last week was
quite impressive. I was actually on Dark Musket in that race and was
counting the winnings on the turn because he was travelling so sweetly.
This horse came from behind him though and clearly outpointed him late
with 1.5kg more. It’s hard to see Darm Musket turning the tables on him
at level weights here and that horse was only 3.75L off Perfect
Reflection prior so the 7kg Star Exhibit gets off Perfect Reflection
here seems more than enough to see him as ultra competitive. Like KOK he
also has Jeune breeding on the Dam’s side so has a bit going for him.
I’d liked to have seen him draw a bit better but a fast speed up front
should ensure the field strings out a bit, aiding him to get some cover.
And being in the Bob Peters camp is also a bonus.

TRADESMAN- has been a horror horse for me this preparation as I’ve
basically picked him to win everything he has contested. He hasn’t
really run poorly in any of them though and it’s been quite easy to find
excuses. You could say he has received four poor rides in a row for
starters and he has had no help with barrier draws. Again he has drawn
poorly here so it’s really hard to get warm on his chances, with the
distance also a slight concern. The fact is though he is good enough, as
evidenced by a great run at WFA behind Perfect Reflection four starts
ago. And this time he meets her massively better at the weights. He is
definitely a winning hope with luck in running, and if he runs the
distance.

ZARANTZ- has been thereabouts all preparation and probably gets his
best chance to win his first ever race at Ascot. His record is miserable
at the track not even running a place in ten attempts. But the distance
suits, as does the light weight and unlike many of the better chances
he has drawn perfectly. Historically his chances look very sound.

IHTSAHYMN and RESPONDENT are others who look to be definite chances
at the weights, but they have both failed in attempts at this race in
the past. The latter horse has also drawn very poorly.

It looks a tough ask but my top 5 is in this order, and with not much between them;

STAR EXHIBIT– Was very impressive to my eye last week
FATHOMS OF GOLD- A more patient ride could see him win this off a lovely weight drop
3.ZARANTZ- Looks a great chance but maybe a placing is his best chance given his strike rate at this track.

TRADESMAN- Just needs a good ride and some luck in running to put himself in the picture
KIA ORA KOUTO- If you give Star Exhibit a chance he has to be in the
top few selections. Just nor sure the price is right off a three week
break.

thefalcon said:
I was in dan murphys yesterday and bumped into a VERY well known punter, the conversation got around to the cup..he looked me in the eye and said "KOK is a living certainty..."
so there u go....

Beans on toast for that bloke

dungy · December 2016

thefalcon said:
yep, the 3 week break is a problem...plus being on the front page of 2 local papers.

KOK did a tendon

dungy · December 2016

PC said:
What happened to the favourite? Probably not good enough?

Tendon

dungy · December 2016

Zarantz was very average , was always going to happen once Miller declared ,, i wouldnt swap him for any other horse in the race ive got him screwed down lol lol , looks like he wont be a part of the large travelling party East in the Autumn lol lol lol never hear that rubbish from Williams or Durrant they just shut there mouth and get on with the job of training winners pretty clear why Bob doesnt send him horses , stick with the babies id say

PC · December 2016

What are the plans for Star Exhibit? A trip east?

Voodoo · December 2016

dungy said:
Zarantz was very average , was always going to happen once Miller declared ,, i wouldnt swap him for any other horse in the race ive got him screwed down lol lol , looks like he wont be a part of the large travelling party East in the Autumn lol lol lol never hear that rubbish from Williams or Durrant they just shut there mouth and get on with the job of training winners pretty clear why Bob doesnt send him horses , stick with the babies id say

Bloke is a complete tosser......end of story.

cheers

Ridersonthestorm33 · January 2017

Followed the markets closely during the week...Kia Ora Koutou never stopped drifting on Saturday...eventually running equal favourite on tabtouch fixed odds @$4.80 with Perfect Reflection. Heavily backed Star Exhibit only a further 20 cents back @$5. Plenty of $9 available early in the week about the winner.

detonator · January 2017

Ridersonthestorm33 said:
Followed the markets closely during the week...Kia Ora Koutou never stopped drifting on Saturday...eventually running equal favourite on tabtouch fixed odds @$4.80 with Perfect Reflection. Heavily backed Star Exhibit only a further 20 cents back @$5. Plenty of $9 available early in the week about the winner.

When a stable has multiple runners and one of their best chances is heavily backed, the alarm bells start ringing. ( particiularly when one has backed the KOK like me) :-L

G'day Punter!

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