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Ascot Preview, 5th Nov 2016
West Australian Racing
PerthTurfTalk
3,054 posts
R1. Lavazza Plate - Scott Embry
This could easily turn out to be Sweet Ora vs Simon Miller Round 2 after the money came in spades for the Miller trained Atacama Sky last start before he flopped worse than the 2015 Fremantle Dockers. Miller brings talented type Badge of Courage to the track first-up at 1100m, adds the blinkers and should be aided by a leader bias Ascot track with the anticipated Easterly breeze blowing and the rail at 9m. Sweet Ora is an exciting proposition and looks as though she will eat up 1100m, this could easily turn out to be her pet distance and recent runs would suggest she simply wins by further over the trip. They look a clear 1 and 2 selection in my opinion with one of the Parnham last start winners' in Iam Incredible or Faerie Whisper running third.
1. SWEET ORA - 6. BADGE OF COURAGE - 7. FAERIE WHISPER
SUGGESTED BET - 1. SWEET ORA $100
This could easily turn out to be Sweet Ora vs Simon Miller Round 2 after the money came in spades for the Miller trained Atacama Sky last start before he flopped worse than the 2015 Fremantle Dockers. Miller brings talented type Badge of Courage to the track first-up at 1100m, adds the blinkers and should be aided by a leader bias Ascot track with the anticipated Easterly breeze blowing and the rail at 9m. Sweet Ora is an exciting proposition and looks as though she will eat up 1100m, this could easily turn out to be her pet distance and recent runs would suggest she simply wins by further over the trip. They look a clear 1 and 2 selection in my opinion with one of the Parnham last start winners' in Iam Incredible or Faerie Whisper running third.
1. SWEET ORA - 6. BADGE OF COURAGE - 7. FAERIE WHISPER
SUGGESTED BET - 1. SWEET ORA $100
Comments
Verdello Blue was taken on last start by Kirov Boy and apprentices Randy Tan and Mollie Clark got themselves engaged in an epic stride for stride battle from the 1100m mark, unfortunately for both their winning chances ended at about the 800m mark because they had taken too much out of themselves and were destined to run backwards of midfield, however, for Verdello Blue the old grey legs kept kicking down the entire length of the straight and to only be beaten 2.8 lengths was an incredibly game performance. With W.Pike onboard and no other noted speed horses engaged expect to see the mighty Grey there for a long way. Already Famous comes up at a very attractive $3 quote after destroying his opposition and should get another lovely run in transit. Bedamijo gets out to a genuine trip for the first time and her form around stronger class gallopers is good enough to win.
3. VERDELLO BLUE - 2. ALREADY FAMOUS - 1. BEDAMIJO
I expect the money to come for Distant Memory who has opened up $12 on one particular corporate and around the $8 mark in a number of places. By race day I would anticipate her price will be slashed into around the $5 mark and think she can run a big race here. Comes from a much stronger form reference than many of these gallopers having run third behind late Winterbottom addition Coming Back and Lenience who ran second to arguably WA's best feature hope in State Solicitor. Those form lines are much stronger than the midweek type form of a number of her opposition and I think she is a nice eachway investment. River Dance in my opinion was a better run than Astronomite first up and from a lovely alley can make his presence felt. Not entirely sure how many good runs he will have in him after a throat operation so hopefully it's atleast two. Astronomite needs 1400m but second-up from the inside gate should enjoy every possible favour.
4. DISTANT MEMORY - 9. RIVER DANCE - 3. ASTRONOMITE
SUGGESTED BET - 4. DISTANT MEMORY $25 x $75
I take the stance on this race that there are enough question marks over the field to justify looking for some value and in the end I have come up with Bowl A Doosra who should bound straight to the front and get everything his own way. If Jarrad Noske can settle him early and then get rolling from the 800m then he will take a stack of beating, especially if the Easterly is howling at around 2pm. There are 6 of the 10 horses engaged who have not won for over 200 days and come from some suspect form lines, horses like Someday One Day are having their first attempt at the distance and others like Magic Rocket will get a long, long way back in the field and could easily fall victim to the anticipated track conditions. Bomber Bay always run an honest race but is still finding his feet over this type of trip and lacks a killer instinct. Confusing is desperately out of form, however, if he could repeat the run which saw him run a length behind Falcon Crest could definitely bob up at odds.
5. BOWL A DOOSRA - 2. MAGIC ROCKET - 4. BOMBER BAY
SUGGESTED BET - 5. BOWL A DOOSRA $20 x $80
Chelsea likes this post.
If we did a phantom call of this race many speed mappers would anticipate the final hundred metres to include Darren McAulley saying "Furious Dame desperately ridden by Turner still a length in front but King River is coming at the rate of knots". King River will get a long way back and the question is, whether or not Furious Dame will be allowed to steal the race at the home corner. Jordan Turner will likely pinch a length or two at the top of the home straight and from there is mighty hard to reel in. Her effort beaten 0.8L Benito when sitting outside now retired speed demon Hot Goods was sensational but equally so King River's final hundred metres was blistering. They look the two for mine, ahead of Viking Forrest who is much better suited against this lot of 72+ horses than last start and Gigante who never saw daylight behind Cool Passion.
5. KING RIVER - 6. FURIOUS DAME - 10. VIKING FORREST
jum likes this post.
This is an intriguing Railway and Kingston Town prelude with NZ raider Kawi flying in on Monday night into Western Australia and to be pilotted by Victorian hoop Michael Walker who has forfeitted a number of rides at Emirites Day to ride just Kawi in the Group 2 feature at Ascot. Two of his last three runs have been Group 1 Victories in New Zealand and from all reports strode out very nicely at track work on Tuesday morning. If he brings his New Zealand form he will be very hard to beat in all the upcoming WA races. Perfect Reflection is the weighted horse in this field, gaining 2kg on both Disposition and Lite'N In My Veins. Hoping she can improve sharply and be competitive. Disposition will settle much closer to the pace after being allowed to find his feet first-up and charged home from last in a 600m sectional quicker than that of the winner Lite'N In My Veins.
2. KAWI (NZ) - 7. PERFECT REFLECTION - 3. DISPOSITION
cinnabelle, Chelsea likes this post.
The market looks to have this race absolutely spot on with the two favourites in Saul's Special and Get Over It looking mighty hard to beat. Saul's Special has been huge at both starts this preparation and looks as though he will most likely stamp himself as the one to beat in the Guineas if he wins this race. Get Over It was a question mark first-up at 1200m and pulled extremely hard in running. If he can settle better from another gun draw then he will be right in the finish. They look the two on paper. Throwing up Ragazzo D'Oro for third who should box seat from barrier 1. He ran into a pretty handy type at Bunbury and will only get better as the distances increase. Swedish Memories can put himself into a winning position from barrier 7 if he is ridden aggressively out of the gates while Minus Looks has form around Caipirinah and Royal Missile who looks two of the stronger three year old fillies. McGruddy elects to ride him over both The River and One Short.
5. SAUL'S SPECIAL - 7. GET OVER IT - 14. RAGAZZO D'ORO
Winsumlosesum, jum, Chelsea, frenc11 likes this post.
I am making a big call here to round out the quaddie and making it a two horse race between Ripper Rio and Crusoe. Sometimes you have to roll the dice and while many punters will be taking almost the field I am going to risk it and try to steal some extra juicy percentage and just play Ripper Rio and Crusoe. Ripper Rio is gunning for a winning hat-trick this preparation and Crusoe gets the services of Jarrad Noske, dropping back form a much stronger 72+ race which contained the likes of Tradesman, Infathuated, Properantes, Universal Law and Outlaw Pete. I think they both have a little class edge on this field and I am willing to stick my neck out in the last leg and stand them out. Pike jumps off the Cronkite ship and from barrier 12 with 49 days between runs he will need to be at his best as will War God drawn the carpark. Settlers Creek comes from an average midweek 60+, Antique Dream is yet to show much this preparation and Juendis could find the 1400m a bit too far.
6. RIPPER RIO - 9. CRUSOE - 11. KENSINGTON ABBEY
frenc11 likes this post.
Think I'll be having a great day at the races with plenty of beverages
jum, LuckyLongshots, frenc11 likes this post.
Hopefully you get a couple of winners ;) too today mate.
Enjoy the day
Chelsea likes this post.
jum, thefalcon likes this post.
I reckon Disposition is the one today with a slashing run from Liten in my veins
rustyh likes this post.
H-BOMBER likes this post.
RIO likes this post.
Fastmoney likes this post.
Fastmoney likes this post.
boom...
it didn't lead though... don't know what your "booming" about :P good tipping
there must of been a prize for the first horse to the home turn the way jordy turner was going up front 8-}
even McCaulay made mention of DM's light weight she carried
H-BOMBER likes this post.
Disposition
Humanity
Kensington abbey
Legless, carey likes this post.
swedish memories
antique dream
MULTIED :D
gone 457 TRI in the 6th ( chasing value :>)