Melbourne Cup Thoughts.

LuckyLongshots · October 2016

Well the numbers have been crunched and the form analysed and this is the results of it!

Do with them what you do!

JAMEKA 98.67%

HARTNELL 95.38%

HEARTBREAK CITY 89.85%

BIG ORANGE 85.50%

QEWY 83.39%

SECRET NUMBER 81.89%

EXOPHERIC 81.52%

ALMANDIN 81.26%

OCEANOGRAPHER 78.71%

SIR JOHN HAWKWOOD 78.23%

WICKLOW BRAVE 76.88%

GALLANTE 75.82%

WHO SHOT THEBARMAN 74.63%

ASSIGN 73.21%

BONDI BEACH 71.17%

EXCESS KOWLEDGE 71.00%

OUR IVANHOWE 70.80%

CURREN MIROTIC 68.13%

GRAND MARSHAL 64.92%

PENTATHLON 60.89%

ALMOONQITH 56.36%

BEAUTIFUL ROMANCE 55.50%

GREY LION 50.47%

ROSE OF VIRGINIA 48.21%

A few interesting notes from doing this calculation.

Heartbreak City has raced against the most horses at it's last three starts (20,12,18)
Wicklow Brave has run over the journey 15 times for 6 wins and 3 placings (note, some hurdles races)

thefalcon · October 2016

all will be revealed by 12.05pm tomorrow...I will just watch the spectacle unfold. anybody who has a DECENT bet in a 24 horse, 2 mile race has more money than sense.

don't get me wrong, nobody likes a punt more than me but to bet on the Cup is, in my mind, folly.

a few mystery trifectas will do me....

therealkramer · October 2016

$5 the field in a massive pool and in a race where bookmakers are prepared to take you on? I'm not sure how much of an invitation you need @thefalcon?

jum · October 2016

therealkramer said:
The Winx form line is still the golden formline just as it was last Autumn. Hartnell has that and that's why he has a stranglehold on favouritism. He's my tip.

The Cox Plate and the Geelong Cup, Lexus are the local races you need to take notice of. Hartnell ran 2nd to a champ on a track I don't think he even worked on prior to the race. They were stuck over at Flemington so you don't need to be a genius to work out what race they really want. If there were genuine doubts on him at two miles they would have taken the Caulfield Cup which was at his mercy.

Yankee Rose is the best 3yo filly in the country-she beat a subsequent Derby winner in the Spring Champion. She ran 2nd to the Thousand Guineas winner Global Glamour in the Flight Stakes and then the 2nd horse in that race, I'm a Star, comes out and wins the Myer Classic at WFA. Yankee Star couldn't run past a throttled down Hartnell even with an 11.5kg weight swing and a vigorous Yendall ride in the home straight.

Either the Internationals are too good on the day or Hartnell will win this. Exosperic(3rd Caulfield Cup) ties in a lot of them to local form and he couldn't get near Jameka. He has form around Postponed, an Arc flop when fav. Order Of St George was beaten by Wicklow Brave before a 3rd in the Arc then he was a flop once again as fav next start.

I'm happy to be wrong but I'm sticking to my guns. The Cox Plate form stands up time and time again.

=D>
Best summary I have read so far.
For me. Hartnells racing antics makes me think he won't get the 2 miles in Australia.
I just can not pick a winner this year. Form right in front of me says Jameka and Hartnell will quinella the race. But there are too many unknowns with the Europeans and the ONE Japanese horse who might just be the knock out.

therealkramer · October 2016

I'm surprised the handicapper didn't have a bigger go at Oceanographer. He got just a 1kg extra for his win in the Lexus. But then would you have Tom Melbourne 2nd fav in the Cup with 51 or 52kg? Real Love was below par and beaten 8 len in that race and she was smashed by Jameka in the Naturalism(6 len) and the Caulfield Cup(5 len). In between those two defeats Real Love won the JRA Cup at the Valley. Also Who Shot Thebarman was scratched from the Geelong Cup when it had 59.5kg, conceding 5.5kg to both Kewy and Oceanographer. If the handicapper thought there wasn't much between them after last Saturday then why is there 4kg tomorrow?

Legless · October 2016

Will have a nibble at Secret Number - if sound will be right amongst this $-)

1st4
Secret Number
Wicklow Brave
Alamandin
Heartbreak City

LuckyLongshots · October 2016

I'm playing some exotics mainly around these (in no particular order)

Hartnell

Jameka

Big Orange

Wicklow Brave

Oceangrapher

Heartbreak City

Qewy

FreoHitman · October 2016

LuckyLongshots said:
Well the numbers have been crunched and the form analysed and this is the results of it!

Do with them what you do!

JAMEKA 98.67%
HARTNELL 95.38%
HEARTBREAK CITY 89.85%
BIG ORANGE 85.50%
QEWY 83.39%
SECRET NUMBER 81.89%
EXOPHERIC 81.52%
ALMANDIN 81.26%
OCEANOGRAPHER 78.71%
SIR JOHN HAWKWOOD 78.23%
WICKLOW BRAVE 76.88%
GALLANTE 75.82%
WHO SHOT THEBARMAN 74.63%
ASSIGN 73.21%
BONDI BEACH 71.17%
EXCESS KOWLEDGE 71.00%
OUR IVANHOWE 70.80%
CURREN MIROTIC 68.13%
GRAND MARSHAL 64.92%
PENTATHLON 60.89%
ALMOONQITH 56.36%
BEAUTIFUL ROMANCE 55.50%
GREY LION 50.47%
ROSE OF VIRGINIA 48.21%

A few interesting notes from doing this calculation.
Heartbreak City has raced against the most horses at it's last three starts (20,12,18)
Wicklow Brave has run over the journey 15 times for 6 wins and 3 placings (note, some hurdles races)

My 50cents

My numbers 17 - 8 - 21 - 9

Like Legless there is something in the air with Secret Number , but Wicklow Brave is the best horse and the margins of weight / barrier may help Alamandin . Almoonquith is just a rogue who likes too **** up exotics

Jordan · October 2016

H-BOMBER said:
Jameka is my tip with my roughy being Grand Marshall.

Yep I'm really starting to warm to Jameka thats my bet with a quinella Big Orange

RIO · October 2016

Cant see Hartnell getting beaten...Putting it with Big Orange, Sir John and Oceanographer

octavius · November 2016

Got a tip for no8 in the last today at Flemington FWIW.

jum · November 2016

Kiwitrotsguy's posts remind me of a guy that was on here a couple of months ago under a few different names.

X_X X_X . If it is the same guy. I wonder how long he will last this time =))

Gilgamesh · November 2016

Whoever is responsible for allowing Rose Of Verginia to run after its effort on the weekend should never work in racing again. I'm deadset serious if something had of gone wrong all hell would have broken loose. Do your f'n job.

LuckyLongshots · November 2016

The numbers were pretty accurate this year, first four came from the the top 8.

LuckyLongshots said:
Well the numbers have been crunched and the form analysed and this is the results of it!

Do with them what you do!

JAMEKA 98.67%
HARTNELL 95.38%
HEARTBREAK CITY 89.85%
BIG ORANGE 85.50%
QEWY 83.39%
SECRET NUMBER 81.89%
EXOPHERIC 81.52%
ALMANDIN 81.26%

Ridersonthestorm33 · November 2016

Interesting to note none of the first five home ran in the Caulfield Cup. Sometimes not quite the lead up race it once was.

therealkramer · November 2016

Ridersonthestorm33 said:
Interesting to note none of the first five home ran in the Caulfield Cup. Sometimes not quite the lead up race it once was.

I pretty much put a line through CC form nowadays. Lloyd popularised the Cox Plate as a lead up and now he's changed the game yet again by sneaking under the handicapper's gaze and getting a horse to win after a month between starts. But in saying that, there's no way in hell Almandin would have got a start in the CP prior to today anyway

jamie70 · November 2016

Found The Winner + 10% of the Tri as well.

Just needed Shillelagh to bob in the last for the Perfect Finish.

Oh well, a bank for Oaks Day :-)

Good Punting To All !!!!!!!!!!!

Ridersonthestorm33 · November 2016

Yes for sure @Trk..that Ebor handicap is an interesting lead up race the one Heartbreak City came through. Always a big field and open handicap race. Some of them run very well in the Cup coming out of the Ebor.

tony · November 2016

Gilgamesh said:
Whoever is responsible for allowing Rose Of Verginia to run after its effort on the weekend should never work in racing again. I'm deadset serious if something had of gone wrong all hell would have broken loose. Do your f'n job.

As far as the performance today is concerned she was galloped on and jockey feeling something was wrong eased her out of the race.

therealkramer · November 2016

Ok this joke was inspired by Kevin Love's Halloween costume but today all of Lloyd's Christmases have come at once

https://49.media.tumblr.com/6e47ce2e034f9ec1b221b5000e2efa7e/tumblr_nnbxr2Rv3b1qz8x31o1_500.gif

therealkramer · November 2016

hash · November 2016

jamie70 said:
Found The Winner + 10% of the Tri as well.
Just needed Shillelagh to bob in the last for the Perfect Finish.
Oh well, a bank for Oaks Day :-)
Good Punting To All !!!!!!!!!!!

That result you speak of was a 5k difference for the quaddie.. Still got a piece of it but instead of it paying 10 it only paid 5... Bowman could win on a broomstick at the moment.. Watch for him on Terravista on Thursday

Markovina · November 2016

Ive got no interest in the boring old tired old gallops - love the Pacing - exciting racing - plus youve got real horseman - thats probably why FRK Grant Williams and Justin Warwick have dominated since switching codes - their proper horseman - not some soapie actor or actress who throws a bridle over a horse for some rich baarstarrd and says - look im a champion gallops trainer !!

Any how the Melb Cup -wouldnt have a clue who was running in it - flicked on the sky Channel - and picked up the replay from the 1600 metres . In the last 100 metres - the horse who ended up running 2nd - i thought to myself is that little froggy Newitt riding that - cant stand him at all - what did he cop 18 mths for lying to the stewards a while back - i was saying please please please get beat - didnt want him being a folk hero cup winning rider - i thought beauty when he got beat ( not knowing it wasnt him )

However when the winning owner went up - shock horror its Lloyd blooody Williams - goodness id rather anybody to be the Cup winning owner than him - cant stand him and his business mate Ron Walker one little bit

JayJay · November 2016

And didn't Lloyd look just terrific in that ridiculous top hat bedecked outfit......Lord of the Manor, the old Toorak landed gentry with that offensive air of superiority. "I am a very tough boss, believe me' when talking down to the interviewer. Oh **** off Lloyd, go tell someone who gives a damn.

LuckyLongshots · November 2016

Whether you won or lost on the Cup yesterday, reckon all of the industry won by this one moment of great sportsmanship!

spinking · November 2016

Great picture Lucky that's sportsmanship at its best imagine to have just done yourself out of the winning jockeys % and still reach over and give the bloke who has beat you a heartfelt pat on the back. I like what Jaoa said in the paper I will be back to win this the bloke is not only one of the best riders in the world but a good bloke to boot I reckon

therealkramer · November 2016

And now for my next trick watch me make a Melbourne Cup victory disappear in half a furlong. Magic Man indeed. He should have stuck to the disappearing thumb trick =))

hash · November 2016

great sportsmanship but for me the fact he gave McKevoy the pat on the back literally metres after they'd both crossed the finish was a sign of how good a sport he is..

the bloke's just been beaten a head in 6 million dollar race and still has the decency to reach over and congratulate his rival, respect ;)

I wont lie I'd of been filthy haha and waited to thank him either in the mounting yard and jock's room

:P

hash · November 2016

good read for anyone interested in the opinion of a pro...

hash · November 2016

Earlier this week, form analyst and Director of Australian Bloodstock Luke Murrell gave us his form on every runner in the big race: check out the preview here.

Now that it’s been run and won, let’s circle back on the race that stops a nation and see how it went against his expectations.

The Good

I got it wrong on the winner: I really didn’t think he’d stay at all. I do think he’s an exceptional horse and he’s at the level, but I just didn’t think he could sustain the speed and handle the pressure. But he proved me wrong.

Look at the others who finished up there too (Heartbreak City, Qewy, Who Shot Thebarman, Almoonqith), most of them don’t have class or a turn-of-foot. It’s just the stamina thing, it was that kind of race. None of them could run a sectional to save their life, but they’re just brilliant staying-type horses. Unfortunately outside of this, we just don’t have the races for them.

Moreira’s ride on Heartbreak City was A1. He got it absolutely perfect and they just run amazingly well for him.

Most of the good runs were those back in the field. Those who went hard early then threw the anchors out around the back to try to get a breather, but in that have robbed their horses of momentum. Those who just went along at the start were able to sustain that same momentum and then come in the second wave, and they’re largely the ones who finished up front.

Hartnell surprised me. He didn’t run a great sectional, but he just kept whacking away. Really his goose was cooked with the genuine tempo, because he’s proven over his whole career he can’t sprint off a tempo, but he stuck on really well.

But by far, the credit goes to Almandin. Looking in hindsight, he was lightly raced and probably the real progressive horse in the field.

The Bad

Berry eventually got Curren Mirotic into a good spot, but his race was cooked at the first pass of the winning post after they went forward.

I thought the most disappointing run of the race was Bondi Beach. I thought he was one horse that had a lot of stamina in him and given the race shape I thought he would have been a hell of a lot closer.

The Ugly

The tactics by Frankie Dettori (Wicklow Brave)… are they kidding? He’s regarded as a champion rider, could you imagine Bowman, McDonald or Avdulla going to another country and riding like that? Yet this supposed champion comes out for this and rides like a kid who’s never sat on a horse. For a Group 1 jockey, it was embarrassing. There was just no helping the horse, it’s a huge contrast to what Moreira was able to do.

That horse has never led a race from the jump in his life. If you watch the race, he was swishing his tail, his ears weren’t positioned well, he was clearly distressed to be there and being forced. It’s amazing they tried to do that from that barrier.

The only thing I can think is from Europe they’re just too used to six or eight horse fields, and they just don’t get it tactically. They’ve got 1200m straights and can afford to make mistakes..

G'day Punter!

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