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Belmont Preview, 25th Jul
West Australian Racing
PerthTurfTalk
3,054 posts
R1. Westspeed 2yo Plate - Scott Embry
With Scales of Justice an early pre-post scratching I think that the race is Reverend John's for the taking. W.Pike into the saddle his closing final 600m behind Man Booker was excellent. 1400m is his go and he had Express Snooper well and truely covered on that day. Should get a lovely run in behind the speed and power over the top. Hidden Grace was backed from 26s into 12s and almost got the money behind Lord Conrad, this doesn't look any tougher. Diamond Tonique whacked away in that same race and can improve second up with fitness under his belt.
2. REVEREND JOHN - 8. HIDDEN GRACE - 1. DIAMOND TONIQUE
SUGGESTED BET - 2. REVEREND JOHN $50 x $50
With Scales of Justice an early pre-post scratching I think that the race is Reverend John's for the taking. W.Pike into the saddle his closing final 600m behind Man Booker was excellent. 1400m is his go and he had Express Snooper well and truely covered on that day. Should get a lovely run in behind the speed and power over the top. Hidden Grace was backed from 26s into 12s and almost got the money behind Lord Conrad, this doesn't look any tougher. Diamond Tonique whacked away in that same race and can improve second up with fitness under his belt.
2. REVEREND JOHN - 8. HIDDEN GRACE - 1. DIAMOND TONIQUE
SUGGESTED BET - 2. REVEREND JOHN $50 x $50
Comments
Mr Mankini has been slowly building towards this third up run at a mile and it looks a picture perfect assignment for him. First-up at 1200m he kept on coming but just lacked the electric turn of foot of some of the more experienced sprinters and then was just gunned down late by Top Show who was backed as if unbeatable that day. Lucy Warwick returns to the saddle and he looks the best bet on the card. Sky Rhythm has been very consistent at the mid-weekers and he does meet a fair few familiar faces. Empyreus is an improving type who can make the jump to Saturday company. Coming Back and Dancing Express drop back in grade and must be respected.
2. MR MANKINI - 4. SKY RHYTHM - 6. EMPYREUS
SUGGESTED BET - 2. MR MANKINI $50 x $50
Going with a copy-paste job from my last Zarantz preview: 'I love a big call such as the Fuschia Bandana to win the Belmont Sprint, Hyperion and Strickland Stakes treble and I'm happy to call it here, Zarantz could become the next big staying star in WA. Not saying he'll win a Perth Cup or anything like that but he will rise through the grades very quickly and pick off these easy ones'. Meets another potential up and comer in Miss Gelana who was handed the race on a silver platter thanks to a Dashing Dan Miller alley-oop when he went harder and faster than a honey-mooning couple on night one. I think Zarantz is a better type than Miss Gelana and I'm putting him on top with her as the obvious danger. Fathnoxious has been a model of consistency lately and backers will get a genuine sight with the tough mare leading to the corner.
3. ZARANTZ - 8. MISS GELANA - 1. FATHNOXIOUS
SUGGESTED BET - 3. ZARANTZ $50 x $50
Not a race I'm overly keen to be invested in because any number of these could win without surprising. Should Calabria Joe find the fence again then he will be mighty hard to beat and from barrier 2 with only 54kg I would expect he will have a massive supporter base. True Storm and Crown Lawyer both ran extremely well in the Beaufine. True Storm is a 1000m horse while I still believe Crown Lawyer is a 1200m horse so I've got True Storm ahead of Crown Lawyer. Terkel is an out and out 1000m bulldog, first-up record is always sound but second-up is his go, happy to wait and back him in a fortnights time. Hobart Jones is a super galloper and 1 from 1 fresh at 1000m, boasts almost $500 000 in prize money as a 3 year old. Pretty keen the Early Quaddie: 2 / 2 / 3,8 / 1,2,3,4,5,7,8 - $56 = 400%.
8. CALABRIA JOE - 3. TRUE STORM - 5. TERKEL
Not the easiest start to the quaddie but if Rule to Wyn can jump handy to the speed from barrier 1 and then get the required splits off a soft run then could be the big improver and prove hard to hold out. I think Mamaroochy has the speed to find the fence here first-up after a lacklustre campaign, she is a big strong filly and goes well over the short course. Mr Motown is off to Kalgoorlie for the 2/3 year old Magic Millions, a very winnable race. Queen of Choice was an H-Bomber special on debut up the Pinjarra straight and can measure up here. Many chances beyond those 3 and not a race I'm going to be playing in.
4. RULE TO WYN - 2. MAMAROOCHY - 12. QUEEN OF CHOICE
Biggest query over Bayella, Cadenza and Zuccheros is that they are all dropping back from 1400 to 1200m. Bayella is in career best form with 3 wins and 3 minors from her past 6 starts including carrying 60 and 59.5kg to victory at her past 2 starts. At the $5 available she is a very safe eachway proposition. Cadenza was backed from 21s into 12s last start and finished alongside talented duo Top Show and Mr Mankini, form reads extremely well and she should give a good account again. Zuccheros continues to savage the line but find one or two better than him on the day. Blinkers added may sharpen him up a bit but 1200m hasn't been a happy hunting ground for him, winless after 6 attempts.
1. BAYELLA - 9. CADENZA - 4. ZUCCHEROS
3 year old Rebel King deserves a listed success against his name and I thought the 2015 Beaufine was the race for him. I had it as a clear 2 horse race with Rock Magic and went the wrong way so I'm buttering up and going again. Can the 2015 H.G Bolton be his race? Again I have it as a 2 horse race, this time with talented mare Wink and a Nod being the second leg of the quinella. Rebel King reunites with WA's top hoop William Pike and that may just be enough to get him over the line. He should find the fence from barrier 2 or allow any challengers to cross and park outside, probably gets a 3 length head start over Wink and a Nod which could be enough to hold her out. Wink and a Nod is flying but a question mark over whether she can produce on the 7 day back-up. Outside those two I think that Trading Day is the value runner in the field.
8. REBEL KING - 11. WINK AND A NOD - 3. TRADING DAY
SUGGESTED BET - 8. REBEL KING $50 x $50
No doubt atleast one of the TabFormers will have the best bet against Hazzabeel because he is the shortest price favourite of the day but I'm happy to stick my neck out and take a stance against him. I'm going to be backing both Vital Importance and Paseo Del Prado to beat Hazzabeel. Vital Importance arguably should have won 3 in a row with her only recent defeat at the hands of Rowie when tramping wide throughout. Beating Son of Something and Trading Day is far superior form in my eyes and $5 a juicy eachway price. Paseo Del Prado dropped back to 1400m which seemed strange and should relish being back at up a mile. Meets Vital Importance 2kg better for a half length defeat and $9 eachway is good shopping. Now onto Hazzabeel; Paul Harvey has ridden him to all 4 victories and is suspended, drawn barrier 10 of 12 in undoubtably his toughest test to date. I know he was caught wide throughout and it took a Pontiff special to lift him over the line but Grey Enigma is a mid-week horse and Fitzrovia who ran third at 200-1 had beaten 4 horses home in his previous 2 runs after a victory at Leinster. If he gets caught wide from his awkward gate I don't think Lucy can lift him over the line like Paul Harvey did. $1.90 is way too short for mine and I think he is vulnerable.
1. VITAL IMPORTANCE - 12. PASEO DEL PRADO - 9. HAZZABEEL (NZ)
SUGGESTED BET - 1. VITAL IMPORTANCE $50 x $50
My roughie is ill stick with Star of Husson. Was bad midweek then ran a good race up over ground. $18 plus looks overs in a competitive race. Don't usually back Ike though.
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zarantz.....has not had a run for 24 days and jumps from 1400 to 2000.....but the stable is in fine form.
wink and a nod....big jump in class...this lot are a class above resonates, akhedasset, bayella etc.
hazzabeel....very promising but I think it needs a strong rider, plus a bad barrier.
BELMONT 25/07 - Weather: FINE; Track: GOOD4; PEN: 6.6; Rail: inside. 63mm rain in last week, nil in last 24hrs #waracing
https://mobile.twitter.com/RWWA_Thor/status/624726276058656768
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Best E/W Ultimate Success/Mad Brad
Bet Roughie Jest Envy Her/ Midnight Shimmer
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Race 1 gate 8 winner - widest gate
Race 2 - gates 10 & 11 - 2nd and 3rd - widest 2 gates
Race 3 - gates 10 & 11 - 1st and 3rd - widest 2 gates
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My roughie of the day
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