The Perth 2YO Season so far

Dale · January 2015

Sunny Boy said:
Nev Parker has a nice 2yo ran 2nd in a trial in fast time at lkhill them spelled - early days guys dont crow too early!!

$15 with sports tab.

DarkTarget · January 2015

Damien Wyer said:

carey said:
well your analysis is deeply flawed
the time of a race is fully dependent on the horse setting the pace, and then times mean different things on different days, under different conditions.
and nearly every race can be run faster than it actually is(especially in wa where crawling is the norm).

anyway, a rough look at yesterday, shows me the 1st race winner ran only about 1.5 lengths slower than the horse you seem to think is the best so far.
even that does not mean that much because it misses the essence of the runs.

Can't agree in the slightest. 2YO's run mostly on fright and flight. Getting them to settle is something that comes with experience but they have to have ability to begin with. If they can't break a minute over 1000M at Ascot they are not going to be a threat in black type races, not here or anywhere. Running 1.07.00 or more is almost 9 lens off the times required to win a slick run lead up race to a Karrakatta Plate.

Saying a horse went 67 over 1100 at Ascot with no other information is bordering on useless.

Cool Trade went 71.30 on Saturday, are you suggesting if it were to run in this years Karrakatta at level weights, it would get a hiding to the tune of around 8 lengths?

DamienWyer · January 2015

DarkTarget said:

Damien Wyer said:

carey said:
well your analysis is deeply flawed
the time of a race is fully dependent on the horse setting the pace, and then times mean different things on different days, under different conditions.
and nearly every race can be run faster than it actually is(especially in wa where crawling is the norm).

anyway, a rough look at yesterday, shows me the 1st race winner ran only about 1.5 lengths slower than the horse you seem to think is the best so far.
even that does not mean that much because it misses the essence of the runs.

Can't agree in the slightest. 2YO's run mostly on fright and flight. Getting them to settle is something that comes with experience but they have to have ability to begin with. If they can't break a minute over 1000M at Ascot they are not going to be a threat in black type races, not here or anywhere. Running 1.07.00 or more is almost 9 lens off the times required to win a slick run lead up race to a Karrakatta Plate.
Saying a horse went 67 over 1100 at Ascot with no other information is bordering on useless.

Cool Trade went 71.30 on Saturday, are you suggesting if it were to run in this years Karrakatta at level weights, it would get a hiding to the tune of around 8 lengths?

Only if you had a complete misunderstanding of the equation.

DarkTarget · January 2015

What equation?

Rodent · January 2015

What about the slope of the track? I could beat Usain Bolt's 100m time if I were running down a sufficiently steep slope.

It might have to be this steep for me to do it, but I still could.

Darkhorse · January 2015

Rodent said:
What about the slope of the track? I could beat Usain Bolt's 100m time if I were running down a sufficiently steep slope.
It might have to be this steep for me to do it, but I still could.

Bullshit Rodent ,

a dead heat at best.

octavius · January 2015

But Usain Bolt wears a cape which means he can fly, so don't matter how steep that slope is if you are only running Rodent...

Pink_Blue · January 2015

Let's be honest, at the end of the day it doesn't matter what time you run, as long as you are the first horse home. Also horses like Puteri Jewel and Chantski had only trialled over 400m and rather than trial over 1000m the trainers figure why not give them a real experience if they are mentally mature enough. That being said you can often see them getting tired towards the end but they then strip a lot fitter for the run and their next start 'should' be more striking.
I personally like the idea that if a horse is mature enough let them have a race start rather than trial again over 1000m, we see a lot of small fields in Perth and more often than not everyone gets a cheque and as an owner just getting your horse to the track is a win.

Legless · February 2015

Pink_Blue said:
Let's be honest, at the end of the day it doesn't matter what time you run

Only those that can run quick time will be competitive in the black type races coming up IMHO (exclude MM - is restricted black type).

The 1st 3 across the line on Saturday in the 1200m race will be thereabouts - the rest will have to show a lot of improvement to be considered chances

octavius · February 2015

2yo MM race looks to have a bit of quality in it, dont think there is too much other exposed quality at this stage not in it...

Legless · February 2015

I did like Chantski - barrier draw no help :-?

JustanL · February 2015

Legless said:
I did like Chantski - barrier draw no help :-?

Does it go back and attack late?. Looks like it has a turn of foot.

Legless · February 2015

:-?? only had the one start and led them up. Pilot is a concern from out there too

octavius · February 2015

It cant win from out there over 1100m. They should scratch and run the Supremacy/Gimcrack.

paraletic · February 2015

im going to back Light Up the Sky. Should get a soft run from there.

Legless · February 2015

paraletic said:
im going to back Light Up the Sky. Should get a soft run from there.

the 2kg pull in the weights just may give it the edge over Senso.

I'm starting to lean towards Lucky Street

SKIDS · February 2015

Is that right? 5th - last get a $4500 cheque?

Chelsea · February 2015

It is very difficult to have your 2yo primed for the Magic Millions and expect it to be ultra competitive in the Karrakatta.The 7or so weeks between both races is to long for the babies.
I think this years edition of the Magic Millions for the 2 yo is only an average field,but the 3yo MM is a very good field.

Chelsea · February 2015

SKIDS said:
Is that right? 5th - last get a $4500 cheque?

yes but you have to pay a $3125 acceptance fee and a Nomination fee in mid June of about $1000 so basically you get your money back if you have a runner

tony · February 2015

SKIDS said:
Is that right? 5th - last get a $4500 cheque?

Yes but acceptance fee is $3,125

RIO · February 2015

Legless said:
I did like Chantski - barrier draw no help :-?

My pick a while ago..i reckon it would win with a swim up start!!!! With taht power kick sittign 2 or 3 wide with a bit of cover shouldn't be a problem

Shinny · February 2015

Anyone fancy Fremond that's my pick nifty can improve them

magoo83 · February 2015

I'm gonna roll with diamond tonique last run looked ordinary, I'm hoping it was just a "run"

Chelsea · February 2015

I can't separate Lucky street and Incoming Tide.(as mentioned a few weeks back)
Both with blinkers on.Both with suitable barriers,and Dan Morton knows how to win this race having won it in the past 2 years (Cadenza and Camporella)as well as having an unlucky runner in both races(Amachisit and Moet me).
Maybe a very slight leaning towards the filly as the girls have a great record in this race.

silky · February 2015

Chantski is a moral

grandstandjockeys · February 2015

I'm going for value this time as don't think there is a lot separating the 2yo this season
Puteri Jewel Light Up The Sky
Esperanca

octavius · February 2015

silky said:
Chantski is a moral

So if it goes back it gives how many lengths to leaders at the turn?

If it pushes forward out of the gate, and will have to push very hard, it still needs a lot of luck not to be 5 wide the trip or have to use all its gas to get to the front.

Senso or Lucky Street for me.

Bfacey77 · February 2015

Senso will piss it in

silky · February 2015

octavius said:

silky said:
Chantski is a moral
So if it goes back it gives how many lengths to leaders at the turn?

If it pushes forward out of the gate, and will have to push very hard, it still needs a lot of luck not to be 5 wide the trip or have to use all its gas to get to the front.

Senso or Lucky Street for me.

They wont push her out of the gates I wouldn't think. maybe 3 wide with cover. Should still have the class to win. Your 2 and Fremont and shady gray to be close up

RIO · February 2015

I'm with silky.. I reckon it'll be 3 wide with cover and swishing her tail with 100 to go as she goes sailing by

G'day Punter!

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