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Belmont Preview, 20th Jul
West Australian Racing
PerthTurfTalk
3,054 posts
R1. Westspeed Nursery Handicap - Scott Embry
The drop back to the short course does look to have diminished the winning chances of Step Right Up and Spin Da Wheels. Both raced last start over 1400m with Step Right Up victorious and Spin Da Wheels thundering home late out wide. They have both drawn awkward barriers and look more like mile type middle distance runners who will find the 1000m too short. Academy Beau comes to the races for the first time, winning his latest trial comfortably out in front by 3 lengths in a handy time. The Bel Esprit youngster looks to have ability and should be decent value around the $6 mark. King Closet was supported in early markets last start before being a late drifter, rolled straight to the front and lead to the furlong but Coruscation was simply too strong. The 1000m should suit however, he will probably have to work to find the front with some speedy types drawn to his inside. Formidable Storm has her first start for new trainer John Wills, ran some tidy races at odds last campaign and interestingly Chris Parnham has chosen to take the mount. He has ridden both Academy Beau and Woken before giving punters a lead to his preferred mount. From the draw Air Glow should get a lot closer to the speed then last start, Take Us There put in a black booking performance second up at Ascot at 40-1, Mireille should improve after being fancied on debut and Zeroth has been a capable trialer but only over the 400m. This is a wide open 2 year old event with value everywhere you look.
6. ACADEMY BEAU - 4. KING CLOSET - 12. FORMIDABLE STORM
SUGGESTED BET - 6. ACADEMY BEAU $15 x $15
The drop back to the short course does look to have diminished the winning chances of Step Right Up and Spin Da Wheels. Both raced last start over 1400m with Step Right Up victorious and Spin Da Wheels thundering home late out wide. They have both drawn awkward barriers and look more like mile type middle distance runners who will find the 1000m too short. Academy Beau comes to the races for the first time, winning his latest trial comfortably out in front by 3 lengths in a handy time. The Bel Esprit youngster looks to have ability and should be decent value around the $6 mark. King Closet was supported in early markets last start before being a late drifter, rolled straight to the front and lead to the furlong but Coruscation was simply too strong. The 1000m should suit however, he will probably have to work to find the front with some speedy types drawn to his inside. Formidable Storm has her first start for new trainer John Wills, ran some tidy races at odds last campaign and interestingly Chris Parnham has chosen to take the mount. He has ridden both Academy Beau and Woken before giving punters a lead to his preferred mount. From the draw Air Glow should get a lot closer to the speed then last start, Take Us There put in a black booking performance second up at Ascot at 40-1, Mireille should improve after being fancied on debut and Zeroth has been a capable trialer but only over the 400m. This is a wide open 2 year old event with value everywhere you look.
6. ACADEMY BEAU - 4. KING CLOSET - 12. FORMIDABLE STORM
SUGGESTED BET - 6. ACADEMY BEAU $15 x $15
Comments
Bedamijo has returned in great form, winning first up at a juicy price, backed it up with a solid third at Pinjarra and last start made Black Romeo, a subsequent winner, stretch his neck to get over the top by a short head. With the claim of O'Grady she gets in with 55.5kg, has a perfect barrier draw to sit right behind the speed, a previous 4th up winner and a winner at both the distance and the track. She should look the winner at some stage in the straight and be hard to beat. November Red is still knocking on the door, he has run some nice races this campaign without troubling the RWWA accountants. His last start effort was huge, slowly away and hitting the line hard beaten just over two lengths. At one stage in 2012 November Red posted 4 wins and 4 other placings from a 13 start Belmont Park campaign acquiring a metro rating of 89. Since then he has been steadily falling in the ratings to his current stance of m68, he will steal one of these races sooner rather then later and with Paul Harvey on board for a rare Durrant stable ride expecting him to go well. For third I've gone with the other Helenus mare in the race, Helena Miss. Should be nearing full fitness at her third start back this campaign, strung a few togeter finishing in the money 7 starts in a row but is yet to recapture her best this time in. Obviously Kim Ability is racing in good fashion, Elusive Image will appreciate the step up in distance, First Flight is a last start winner and Duke of Vasac should get a very soft run in transit.
2. BEDAMIJO - 5. NOVEMBER RED - 6. HELENA MISS
SUGGESTED BET - 2. BEDAMIJO $25 x $25
For those who have their form done by Thursday lunch time when the fixed odds come out $2.50 was momentarily offered for the favourite Celebrity Miss. Backed into $6 last start coming up against WA's new sprint sensation Smoko. Some smart Punters took advantage of the market confidence and wisely invested in the Smoko-Celebrity Miss Exacta which payed a luxurious $3.50. Currently in the market the favourite is into $1.75, a price which is too short for most to back but does serve as a nice multiplier for the all up and multi players. She has come the closest to Smoko's tail at the finishing post and with that form she should run away with this. Marmaa is a favourite of mine, won the $250 000 Inglis Juvenile at Mooney Valley for David Hayes, a $110 000 yearling. Yet to notch a win in WA he has come very close this campaign with two second placings and a third. Last start was forced to work hard to get outside the leaders in a franeticly run 1200, should find the front a lot easier from here and always looks picture perfect in the yard. Accrual, another former Eastern States galloper, probably seen by many as more of a miler but he has a reasonable record at the distance. The Pontiff jumps aboard and from the handy draw he should be within striking distance at the finish. Tiger Territory has his first start in the state following a soft trial win. Yamunotri will be the grey flashing home out wide if there is sufficient early speed in the race.
7. BELOW(NZ) - 1. MARMAA - 2. ACCRUAL
SUGGESTED BET - 7. BELOW(NZ) $75
Vitrual Trader screams roving banker, 7 placings from 8 starts at Belmont Park, 6 placings from 6 starts over 1200m, finishing within a head of Express Service and Mr Utopia, drops 2kg on his last run when placed behind Smoko and the $1.75 favourite of the previous Celebrity Miss. Will probably need to get off the fence before the turn to chase down the leaders but with normal racing luck looks very hard to beat. Amber's Hero has returned in fine form with a third behind Smoko and almost knocking off Takanori after responding to some vigorous hands and heels riding from the whipless O'Donnell. Gets in very well at the weights with Chris Parnham's claim and should be there again in the finish. Having selected two run on/handy type runners I will throw a leader into the mix for the trifecta, Danablue has been ultra consistent sitting over the top of the speed this campaign, from barrier 6 with 52kg and War Prince drawn to his outside he could easily lead today and be the one to catch. Early market move from 9s into 5s suggests he will be running strongly again. Handful of Dust was my on top selection at Pinjarra on Thursday before her scratching, she should be hitting the line with gusto again here and is a must for first 4 players. Not A Single Drop had his chance last week, given a 10/10 ride by Harvey couldn't finish the job.
2. VIRTUAL TRADER - 4. AMBER'S HERO - 8. DANABLUE
SUGGESTED BET - 2. VIRTUAL TRADER $30
Malaika, Swahili for angel, has run her three starts this campaign as if she does have angelic wings. Storming home at her last two she steps up to the staying journey for the first time this preparation. Showed in her first two runs that carrying weight is not a problem for her she should be contesting the finish. Winner at this distance previously at her fourth campaign run and has finished in the money at 13 of her 16 Belmont Park runs. Stay Lady Stay is consistently around the mark, disappointing last start but races today with 52kg and a delightful barrier. The $11 on offer by Player looks very good eachway value. Ultimate Success looked as though the staying journey would be right down his alley but really only grind to the line along the fence. May have to go back from the draw but the feather weight on his back today brings him into the mix and should be running on late. Ask Me Nicely should be sitting right over the speed and always gives backers a run for their money. Mantango was huge last start but previous form this campaign was average. Scotland the Brave is bred to run the distance, his mother is the only horse to have won the Melbourne Cup-Auckland Cup double, winning in 1998.
1. MALAIKA - 11. STAY LADY STAY - 12. ULTIMATE SUCCESS
SUGGESTED BET - 1. MALAIKA $25 x $25
This is a cracking race with almost every horse having legitimate winning claims. Orbital Motion returns to WA from VIC and his recent trial win was highly impressive. Suited over further ground but his record of 4 starts at Belmont for three top 2 efforts, sound first up form and a win first up over 1200 all suggests he will be competitive on his return. Tax A Million was an impressive winner last start, never far away and his form over 1200m is undeniably good. He has the gate speed necessary to mitigate an awkward barrier draw and position up nicely just off the speed. Stacks On has been forgotten by many, her win 4 starts ago was impressive and she followed it up with a placing behind Dominating. Given a soft run, smothered up one off the fence by Harvey she is capable of kicking home strongly. Recode was unlucky first up for the Durrant stable and huge second up, the type of horse who must be ridden quietly and saved for one late burst but more then capable. Quaddie wise I think I'll be taking all of them apart from the Social Network.
4. ORBITAL MOTION - 6. TAX A MILLION - 3. STACKS ON
Personally I think that Northpace will win and win easily but Summah's Touch simply can't be ignored. She has won more then $300 000 prize money and knocked off Northpace when they met in the Guineas. Northpace struck interference at the crucial stage in that race, bumped, squeezed and turned sideways for a stride before being steadied, rebalanced and hitting the line hard considering. A fortnight ago in the Dayana he simply destroyed his rivals. Super impressive and combining him in a two legged multi with Celebrity Miss looks the bet of the day. On her class Summah's Touch should finish second and it certianly wouldn't surprise to see these two gap the field. The Kersley hand in this race is quite amazing, Northpace, Go Tiger, Credo and Nunca Te Rindas, formerly trained by Fred Kersley now with his daughter Kate and her jockey husband Kristian Hawkins. Purple Tiger would have been a fifth Kersley horse in the race but has been sent for a spell after struggling to find a run in the Dayana. Go Tiger looks like a genuine stayer who will appreciate the 2200m, camped off the speed he should again run a placing behind the stable mate. Pants on Friar ran an impressive race in the Oaks, she is still a maiden galloper but does have ability. Repeating her Oaks performance Elle on Friar will be competitive. This looks like a two horse race but on the fact that Northpace ran the 2000m an entire second faster then Summah's Touch and was pulling away at the finish I think he will win again.
1. NORTHPACE - 8. SUMMAH'S TOUCH - 4. GO TIGER
SUGGESTED BET - 1. NORTHPACE $75
Keepers Court is another making his debut for the Durrant yard, formerly with Alan Mathews he looks incredibly well placed to win first up. Aimed ultimately at winning the Kalgoorlie treble later in the year he gives Ben Paterson a real chance to peg one back on Chris Parnham in the apprentices cup. His trial over 950m behind Kalahaar and Tiger Pete beaten only 1.5 lengths was super impressive and his records at Belmont Park, first up and over 1400m speak for themselves. More then happy to have taken the $7 on offer Thursday and it wouldn't surprise me to see him run second favourite. True Gold has an incredibly consistent record over his 18 start career, finds it tough to win but is always a lock for the first 4s. Massive effort first up coming from 14th on the corner to run 4th after eventually finding a run through the pack. Never missed the place at this distance or second up, meeting Platinum Rocker 1kg better at the weights from their last encounter and has drawn better barrier. Expecting him to be competitive as usual and playing the roving banker for many punters. Platinum Rocker was a drifter in the market last start getting out to $7 on the jump, looked the winner with 100m to go before Tax A Million got over the top of him. With natural fitness progression and three wins over the 1400m he is a deserving favourite. New Time finds it nearly impossible to win at Belmont Park but gets another chance here, loves the distance and should be able to box seat from the lovely draw. Ten Aces is flying, the Taylor-Parnham combination is almost as attractive as his daughter Brittany and he should contest the finsih. Classique Ivory was a touch disappointing last start but the 1400m should suit. A watch on Mutawarath, if he can run midfield today, step up to 1600m next start and drop out to midweek or provincial class I will be jumping aboard.
5. KEEPERS COURT(NZ) - 15. TRUE GOLD - 14. PLATINUM ROCKER
SUGGESTED BET - 5. KEEPERS COURT(NZ) $25 x $25
TheSwooper likes this post.
Hopefully Northpace can get the job done for a host of multis and like true gold in the last
H-BOMBER likes this post.
I think I will have to go with the value in Summahs Touch.
unlucky bomber
That was a.10/10 ride !
Fastmoney likes this post.
Indy likes this post.
Indy likes this post.
Dmac makes mistakes, but Hilton Donaldson is the KING at picking the wrong horse in a photo. No one will ever beat Hilton !
He is a shocker although I was on bentonian today and went the early crow myself thought it had lasted.
He's gunna make it, this kid!!!-the best apprentice since the last one.....off to melb!!