In this Discussion
- Chris April 24
- DamienWyer April 24
- SLIPPERGOLDEN April 24
Who's Online
0 Members & 43 Non Members
Ascot Anzac Day 24/05 - Preview & Selections
West Australian Racing
Chris
5,718 posts
Chris
5,718 posts
Comments
Return on Turnover (ROT): 209%
System Adjustments: The model performed exceptionally well on runners moving from Provincial to Metro grade. We have maintained the heavy weighting on "on-speed" profiles given the +7m rail position today, as catching leaders on a fresh strip of grass can be like trying to catch a greased pig in a hallway.
Meeting Overview
Track: Ascot
Rail Position: +7m Entire
Likely Conditions: Good 4
Race 1 — THE LAST POST HANDICAP (1400m)
The Analysis: We start the day with a 3YO Handicap where Ladies Pro looks the one to beat. This filly is as professional as her name suggests, coming off a gritty win at this track and distance where she sat midfield and powered over them late. William Pike stays aboard, and while she carries 60kg, her class rating is significantly higher than this field. The main danger is Split The Gee, who was only a neck away from Ladies Pro last start and now meets her slightly better at the weights thanks to Holly Nottle’s 2kg claim. Expect these two to fight it out again, but Ladies Pro has the winning habit.
Recommended Bet: High (2 Units) - LADIES PRO ($1.75)
Market Frame (105%)
Ladies Pro: $1.80 (55.5%)
Split The Gee: $5.00 (21.0%)
Moonwalk: $11.00 (9.1%)
God's Rapture: $13.00 (7.7%)
Others: $18.00+ (11.7%)
Race 2 — RELIABLE ASSET MAINTENANCE HANDICAP (1800m)
The Analysis: A very open mile-and-a-furlong contest. Arrangement is the one that maps perfectly here. He loomed like he was going to win easily last start before being outgunned late, but the step up to 1800m looks ideal now that he has that fitness under his belt. He’s 4th up, at peak fitness, and Pike jumping on is a massive pointer. Classic Impact is the danger; she was dominant two starts back at this trip and simply failed on the soft track last time. Back on a Good 4, she’s a different horse.
Recommended Bet: Medium (1.5 Units) - ARRANGEMENT ($4.60)
Bomb: Myzoom ($14.00) - Won well last start at Belmont and is weighted to run a massive race.
Market Frame (105%)
Classic Impact: $4.00 (26.3%)
Arrangement: $4.50 (23.3%)
Fifth Essence: $5.00 (21.0%)
Decoration: $8.50 (12.4%)
Others: $11.00+ (22.0%)
Race 3 — PETERS INVESTMENTS PLATE (1100m)
The Analysis: Two-year-old races are always a bit of a lottery, but Mark The Sky produced a trial at Belmont that suggested he has a motor. He’s by a world-class sire and Daniel Morton doesn't bring them to the races unless they are ready. He won that trial by a length with plenty in hand. Cos I Am won her debut in professional fashion and has the race experience edge. She’ll likely lead or sit second, and with the rail out, she’ll be very hard to get past.
Recommended Bet: Bet (1 Unit) - MARK THE SKY ($3.20)
Market Frame (105%)
Mark The Sky: $3.00 (35.0%)
Cos I Am: $4.20 (25.0%)
Official Business: $6.50 (16.2%)
Hillside Avenue: $8.00 (13.1%)
Others: $10.00+ (15.7%)
Race 4 — ULE HOOF OIL HANDICAP (1600m)
The Analysis: This is a high-quality RTG 66+. Dug Another Hole is a model of consistency and has an excellent record at Ascot. He’s on-speed, tough, and Brad Parnham knows exactly when to press the button on him. He fought on bravely last start behind Rally The Troops and this looks a slightly easier assignment. Odinaka is the class horse dropping back from 72+ grade. He was eye-catching late last start and the extra 200m today is exactly what he’s looking for.
Recommended Bet: Medium (1.5 Units) - DUG ANOTHER HOLE ($7.00)
Market Frame (105%)
Odinaka: $4.20 (25.0%)
Defending: $5.00 (21.0%)
Dug Another Hole: $6.00 (17.5%)
Crunchy Nut: $7.50 (14.0%)
Simply Thinkin': $8.50 (12.4%)
Others: $10.00+ (15.1%)
Race 5 — RSLWA TROPHY (1000m)
The Analysis: Black Ora is a high-class sprinter who was simply unlucky last start when impeded at a crucial stage. Her win prior was dominant, and despite the top weight, she has the tactical speed to overcome the draw. Shmoov Moova is the big "X-factor" returning from a break. He’s a first-up specialist and his recent trial win was nothing short of explosive. If there is a betting drift on the favorite, Shmoov Moova is the one to be on.
Recommended Bet: High (2 Units) - BLACK ORA ($3.40)
Market Frame (105%)
Black Ora: $3.20 (32.8%)
Shmoov Moova: $4.00 (26.3%)
Castle Road: $6.50 (16.2%)
Sound of Speed: $8.00 (13.1%)
Others: $10.00+ (16.6%)
SLIPPERGOLDEN likes this post.
Race 6 — DIGGERS CUP (1800m)
The Analysis: Royal Toronado is the "Lock of the Day." He destroyed a quality field in the Pinjarra Cup last start, winning effortlessly by 2.6 lengths. He is at the absolute peak of his powers and 1800m at Ascot is his playground. He sits in the box seat and puts them away at the 200m. Fancy Red is a very good mare who will lead them for a long way, but she might just find the final 100m testing against a horse of Toronado's caliber.
Recommended Bet: Best Bet (3 Units) - ROYAL TORONADO ($2.00)
Market Frame (105%)
Royal Toronado: $1.90 (55.3%)
Fancy Red: $5.50 (19.1%)
Trio: $8.00 (13.1%)
Russian To The Bar: $11.00 (9.5%)
Others: $13.00+ (8.0%)
Race 7 — SHEILA GWYNNE CLASSIC (1400m)
The Analysis: This is a cracking edition of the Sheila Gwynne. Bonjoy is a winning machine. Her win two starts back in the Grandstand was purely arrogant, coming from the clouds to nab them. She didn't have the same luck last start, but the return to 1400m is perfect. London's Image is the primary threat; she won the M Charleson like a star and will be the one they have to catch. However, Bonjoy’s elite turn of foot is hard to bet against when she’s right.
Recommended Bet: High (2 Units) - BONJOY ($3.50)
Market Frame (105%)
London's Image: $3.20 (32.8%)
Bonjoy: $3.50 (30.0%)
Fast Flicker: $6.50 (16.2%)
Toropa: $10.00 (10.5%)
Others: $11.00+ (15.5%)
Race 8 — BANKS AVENUE MEMORIAL HANDICAP (1200m)
The Analysis: We finish the day with a wide-open sprint. Malletier has been knocking on the door with two elite runs this prep. He’s third-up today, which is when he historically hits his peak, and he gets the services of Pike. He’ll sit midfield and look to wide-sweep them. Sixinch Heels is the danger; she was huge first-up when second to the flying Tycoon Harry. If she improves even 5% on that run, she’s right in the finish.
Recommended Bet: Medium (1.5 Units) - MALLETIER ($2.65)
Bomb: Supersession ($18.00) - Don't ignore the class here. He’s a Batavia winner and his second-up record is excellent.
Market Frame (105%)
Malletier: $3.00 (35.0%)
Sixinch Heels: $6.00 (17.5%)
Chollima: $8.50 (12.4%)
Sir Dreamalot: $10.00 (10.5%)
Sunny Honey: $11.00 (9.5%)
Others: $11.00+ (20.1%)
Summary of Best Bets