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Belmont Preview, 11th Oct
West Australian Racing
PerthTurfTalk
3,054 posts
R1. Westspeed-initial Plate - Scott Embry
Normally I wouldn't bet so early in the 2 year old season but why not have a crack at the Initial Plate. No real fixed odds markets to guide myself on but I've settled on the McAuliffe trained filly Obatala, she has blinkers added to racing gear for her debut and with W.Pike in the saddle should give a good account. Has only had the one 400m jump out but she does look to be a nicely put together filly by Universal Ruler, who produced some early sprint types last season, she is a full sister to Versed Remedy who, while still a maiden, ran a number of very handy races including minor placings to Cadenza and Big Caroline. Neville Parnham dominated the 2 year old season early last year at Belmont Park and so his two runners, Fremond and Watijadoo must be respected. The fence is the perfect place for a 2 year old and Paul Harvey a seasoned pilot. From the inside gate Lucky Street will be given a soft run by the Pontiff. As always betting will tell the tale in the first few months of 2 year old racing so watch the market.
7. OBATALA - 1. FREMOND - 2. LUCKY STREET
SUGGESTED BET - 7. OBATALA $10 x $20
Normally I wouldn't bet so early in the 2 year old season but why not have a crack at the Initial Plate. No real fixed odds markets to guide myself on but I've settled on the McAuliffe trained filly Obatala, she has blinkers added to racing gear for her debut and with W.Pike in the saddle should give a good account. Has only had the one 400m jump out but she does look to be a nicely put together filly by Universal Ruler, who produced some early sprint types last season, she is a full sister to Versed Remedy who, while still a maiden, ran a number of very handy races including minor placings to Cadenza and Big Caroline. Neville Parnham dominated the 2 year old season early last year at Belmont Park and so his two runners, Fremond and Watijadoo must be respected. The fence is the perfect place for a 2 year old and Paul Harvey a seasoned pilot. From the inside gate Lucky Street will be given a soft run by the Pontiff. As always betting will tell the tale in the first few months of 2 year old racing so watch the market.
7. OBATALA - 1. FREMOND - 2. LUCKY STREET
SUGGESTED BET - 7. OBATALA $10 x $20
Comments
Exact same headline as last week, Fathnoxious Formidable Form, she has won two on the bounce this preparation under Irishman Shane Quilty and the Fath mare has been super impressive in both runs. First up she skipped away up the cutaway to defeat subsequent Northam winner Rock and Riff by almost 3 lengths, second-up she was backed off the charts in betting with punters keen to take $2.10 on the jump and she was afforded no luck in running sitting four and five deep the journey and still kicking clear to knock off Red Amber by 1.8 lengths. Red Amber won convincingly last Saturday suggesting the Fathnoxious form will hold strong and she will be very hard to beat here. Blue Palace looks suited dropping back to a mile however looks somewhat unsuited by the inside barrier. I am very weary of get-back horses from barrier 1 but she will be chasing hard as always. Paddy's Flat has returned to racing in fine form and ran into a pretty talented type last start. No surprise to see Parnham take Fathnoxious to the front and lead all the way.
7. FATHNOXIOUS - 1. BLUE PALACE - 5. PADDY'S FLAT
SUGGESTED BET - 7. FATHNOXIOUS $75
Lou Luciani trained gelding Ye Olde has shown enough in his three runs this preparation to suggest he is ready to bounce back to his best. Last preparation Ye Olde beat home the likes of Wroughted, Son of Something and Full Steam Ahead and looks well placed dropping 3kg back to 56. Generally takes a few runs to warm up having never won inside his first two starts in a campaign, drawn perfectly in barrier 3 he should get the run of the race and I'm happy to have him on top on an eachway basis. Brother Patrick won in style leading all the way over 1400m before having excuses in the Hannans Handicap at Kalgoorlie, last start was far from disgraced when finishing 1.8 lengths behind highly talented gelding Stagnite, winner of 5 from 8. With Lucy back in the saddle he should get a lovely run behind likely leader Ziva Star. Vital Importance was back to her brilliant best last start when supported in betting and sweeping past the entire field from last to record a soft victory. She is another get-back type horse who is unsuited by the inside gate and I'm happy enough to take the favourite on here. Pharomac could improve sharply at his third WA start, O'Donnell is a positive riding engagement.
8. YE OLDE - 2. BROTHER PATRICK - 9. VITAL IMPORTANCE
SUGGESTED BET - 8. YE OLDE $10 x $20
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Saxon mare Bonny Zara couldn't have been more impressive when winning by over 5 lengths in midweek grade over 1700m at Belmont Park before looking the winner at the top of the straight when tackling 2000m for the first time and ended up just grinding to the line, unable to reel in Andi's Boy. Should take a lot of improvement out of that run and does look one of the better bets on the card. Drawn perfectly for Knuckey if he can get her rolling before the home turn then she should be too strong. Raising Dubai was beaten almost 6 lengths by Bonny Zara two starts ago but was a heavily backed favourite that day and has since recorded a victory in the Toodyay Cup. Peter Hall sticks in the saddle and I think he is the testing material here. If you prefer to back against favourites then the 10s on offer appeal to me quite a lot. Expecting market support for him so I'd probably suggest early fixed betting if that's the way you go. Ningaloo Blitz is a classy staying mare, Jerry Noske will look to put her in the race with around 1000m to go and ensure it is run as a true staying test.
4. BONNY ZARA - 5. RAISING DUBAI - 1. NINGALOO BLITZ
SUGGESTED BET - 4. BONNY ZARA $65
This is without doubt the best race on the card in my opinion and a lead-up race for this years Railway Stakes. Every horse looks in with realistic winning chances, except perhaps the pair of 8 year olds at the bottom of the page, I'm Called Earl and Ron's Gem. Flying Time looked a good thing beaten in the Hannans Handicap when held up numerous times in the straight after dragging back to last from his barrier about 10km outside Kalgoorlie. Very consistent record and should appreciate a midfield gate. Miss Rose De Lago will keep improving as the distances increase and certainly hit the line hard first-up over a somewhat unsuitable 1200m. Proved last start she can settle midfield and we all know what she's capable of when leading. Definitely a profitable campaign ahead for her and will enjoy a 4kg weight relief. Trading Day is a serious racehorse who is yet to miss the money at Belmont and has finished inside the top 3 at all bar 2 runs in his 17 start career. First runner for trainer Warren Wilson and I'd love to see him win this. Stagnite will probably find Perth peak hour traffic from the inside gate but we all know that Pike can weave in and out like a Thailand taxi. Atleast 7 runners with genuine claims in the opening leg of the quaddie.
4. FLYING TIME - 7. MISS ROSE DE LAGO - 1. TRADING DAY
SUGGESTED BET - 4. FLYING TIME $10 x $20
Rock of Gibraltar gelding Full Clip is in excellent form and will be looking to position up on speed and hold out relative newcomer Retro Rocket. Full Clip won two in a row including a 1.3 length defeat of subsequent Saturday winner Oakhurst Flyer before going down by 2.3 lengths to stablemate Mendicity after the winds changed direction midway through the September 20 meet and made it tough for leaders. Jerry Noske should get a lovely run behind speed horse Detection having drawn to his inside and should give backers a solid sight. High Limit possesses an electric turn of foot and hit the line hard when finishing second to surprise winner Theresnonesosassy first-up. Will definitely appreciate a hot top end speed and will be mowing grass late. If there is market support I'd be inclined to jump aboard. Retro Rocket was backed into $1.70 when resuming in a Northam maiden where he absolutely destroyed rivals in a galloping exhibition cruising to a 6.5 length win. This is a whole lot harder but he appears to have his fair share of ability.
3. FULL CLIP - 5. HIGH LIMIT - 11. RETRO ROCKET
SUGGESTED BET - 3. FULL CLIP $10 x $20
Hard to split a lot of these 3 year olds in the penultimate race. Liberty's Gem was an all the way winner on debut in the wind and rain for inform trainer Simon Miller, looked beaten one stride before the post and one stride after the post but with heads bobbing up and down like an underage rave Liberty's Gem was able to steal victory from Megafactory. Third in that race was Dark Rhythm and all three horses must be in with a chance again here. Oradol is yet to taste success but is always around the mark. Eventually and without much confidence I settled on Arcadia Delight at around the $11 mark. Pike stays in the saddle and she is beautifully drawn in barrier 4. The form surrounding Tonto and First Among Equals should hold firm and expect her to be there abouts when the cheques are being written. Castle Retreat beat talented Durrant sprinter Hellyer and finished within a neck to one of the best 3 year olds we've seen to date in Shengmu. If he can find the fence he will be hard to get over, another at an eachway price around $12. Prete A Partir ran into a good horse last start in Disposition and will be running on hard as will Silver Magic Ships who returns from a freshen up enroute to the Guineas. Hardest race of the day and another wide quaddie leg.
12. ARCADIA DELIGHT - 1. CASTLE RETREAT - 3. LIBERTY'S GEM
Testamezzo definitely ticks every box for me in the Get-Out Stakes and we should be able to head home backing a winner, albeit at a fairly skinny quote. Testamezzo, winner at 7 of 10 races is 4 from 4 over 1000m, 2 from 2 at Belmont Park and 2 from 2 first-up. Runs on the 54kg minimum for the first time in his career but does meet arguably his toughtest opposition yet. Quite possibly head towards a Summer Scortcher/Winterbottom campaign and looks incredibly hard to beat here. For second I am fairly keen on 8 year old Oratorio gelding Waratah's Secret, who hasn't visited the winner's enclosure for 1085 days. Beaten a combined 56 lengths at his only two Darwin starts but returns to Belmont where he boasts 8 top two finishes from 10 starts and resumes on the back of an electric trial victory. A very sharp time was recorded and both Rebelson and Fuschia Bandana who were in that trial ran well first-up last week. Awkwardly drawn in barrier 11 but gets in well at the weights considering he was once a metro112 rated horse who has placed to Barakey and Grand Nirvana in days gone. Expecting the big ol' fella to put in a game performance and I'll be having a little nibble at him. Thateldo is another highly talented type in need of luck from an awkward draw but absolutely no doubt there will be a myriad of young lads happy to see him and his glamorous owner Brittany Taylor victorious in the last.
9. TESTAMEZZO - 1. WARATAH'S SECRET - 3. THATELDO
SUGGESTED BET - 9. TESTAMEZZO $75
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thing left in the tank for later..
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Miss Rose De Lago
Next Best
Timebomb
Recode
Go The Maid in the thousand!!!!
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