In this Discussion
- PerthTurfTalk March 2013
- Raff_2000 March 2013
Who's Online
0 Members & 5 Non Members
Ascot Preview, 2nd Mar
West Australian Racing
PerthTurfTalk
3,054 posts
Ascot R1. Westspeed 2yo Plate Preview - Matt Rigby
I'll guess with Isola Blue and W Pike in the first in what looks a decent bunch of two year olds. She has done nothing wrong in three starts including a creditable run in the Magic Millions race behind Camporella. Connections of Candour will be hoping the colt can run a race here. Being a Fastnet Rock, he'd have cost a pretty penny. Vital to be Welsh and Moonsearch also have claims. I never really like two year olds backing up, so that puts a line through De Jersey for me.
5. ISOLA BLU - 2. CANDOUR - 8. VITAL TO BE WELSH
I'll guess with Isola Blue and W Pike in the first in what looks a decent bunch of two year olds. She has done nothing wrong in three starts including a creditable run in the Magic Millions race behind Camporella. Connections of Candour will be hoping the colt can run a race here. Being a Fastnet Rock, he'd have cost a pretty penny. Vital to be Welsh and Moonsearch also have claims. I never really like two year olds backing up, so that puts a line through De Jersey for me.
5. ISOLA BLU - 2. CANDOUR - 8. VITAL TO BE WELSH
Comments
I found it hard to split Dawn's Flyer and Dueton in this race but the late scratching has made the choice for me. Dawn's Flyer was super impressive in both trials prior to returning to Lark Hill last week. Carbery goes on after Bivemark took a full book of rides at Esperance and unfortunately misses out on the ride. King of the Palace also trialed well and looks to have an explosive finish. There's a ton of pace through the likes of Cherie Amour, Culprit and Wahkeena which should also suit the likes of Theoria and the aforementioned King of the Palace.
4. DAWN'S FLYER - 5. KING OF THE PALACE - 2. CHERIE AMOUR
Kalahaar disappointed last time out when Mendicity stole the march on him and beat him easily. The start prior he was allowed to drift way too far back in running. Im banking on the blinkers sharpening this fellow up today and I think McGruddy will ride more positively from barrier 1. True Gold is the obvious danger but is a little hard to catch for mine. Modello has well documented issues and was scratched from last week which worries me. Full Clip may lead here with the only other pace Catlantic and Dino Mak. The latter was a decent run second up, sitting outside a good pace. Kalahaar on his last chance.
2. KALAHAAR - 5. TRUE GOLD - 6. FULL CLIP
While I think Black Tycoon will have too much class for this race, he's a little on the short side now. Harvey is the perfect rider here and he's the worthy favourite. Doutable should be fit enough now to figure in this and should cross California Valley and lead with ease. While I dont think Quickie will want to lead, Pike may find himself struggling against the mare as she over races stepping up to 1800m. There is a slight doubt at the 1800m about my tip, but I'll stick. Crispiano put in an eye catcher last start but you'll go broke following that horse. Black Tycoon will probably win but have a saver on Doutable.
4. BLACK TYCOON - 1. DOUTABLE - 9. QUICKIE(NZ)
With Rebelson going back in this race and with bigger fish to fry, it leaves an easy lead for Black Uma and if Browny takes off at the right time, he'll be too strong to the line. Flashy Doll is in great form and just found Galiletto too sharp with the 58.5kg last week. Im not so sure about backing up a bleeder so I'll take the cautious approach with her. Rebelson is no doubt a class animal and shouldnt be discounted even though he might not be 100% for this. The Corporation lost me last start, I though his run was poor. Im sticking with Verdello Blue and think he has a great chance in this race at odds. The Tenby Friar is a wallet raider.
6. BLACK UMA - 1. FLASHY DOLL - 9. REBELSON
Two of his last three runs were extremely impressive, mowing them down from near impossible positions. The problem with finding a way to knock him here is that the race will be set up perfectly for Ready Raider, wiht pace from Pure Adrenalin, Bar Dreaming, Gotabay and even Its A Merc. Mr Vadim is the danger with the Pontiff and should be sitting withing striking distance. Black Blast can also improve with Pike aboard although his last effort was "just a run". I believe they will allow Its A Merc to have his head today after racing extremely wide at his last three runs. Cockram is likely to let him stride and he's a much better horse that way. He's worth a spec at $31 although he could get carved up again if they go too quick. Estralla can also swoop late, but I couldnt see her turning the tables on Ready Raider here.
4. READY RAIDER - 3. MR VADIM - 2. BLACK BLAST
General Confusion was my experience in doing this race, rather than my tip! That aside, I do give the General Nediym gelding a good chance in this, along with Dare to Doubt, Young Lionel, Antonccino and even Heart Play. Its much more wide open that the market suggests and for that reason, I'll be taking on Young Lionel again today. Antoccino was a terrific run at Bunbury and should have won that day, but the pace here concerns me. Wizards Point or even Stompin could go forward here, but the race is frought with danger. You can probably bank that the plunge horse will end up leading here off a slow pace. Watch the market. Im going to throw you two maddies here, Wizards Point and Heart Play. Both were shocking last start but if you can forgive them both, then previous form says their prices are well overstated. Heart Play ofcourse beat Young Lionel two starts back.
6. DARE TO DOUBT - 7. HEART PLAY - 12. WIZARDS POINT
Its a definite "dartboard of glory" for me in the last. Ive come out on top with Louisiana Lady but she seriously has had her chances. I'd like to see Verscene possie up in the first four or five , which she has been unable to do this campaign so far. I believe she's a much better horse on the pace. Black Magic Miss and Real Glow have had every chance their last few, with the latter having a substantial riding change. Even Astar has been fired despite racing wide last start. Before that she had her chance leading and passed out at the 200m mark. Teh one that intrigues me is an old favourite, Private Dance. She's drawn badly but if Rob Wells has her right (and last start shows she might be close), she has the class on this field. She must however have some serious problems to have raced as badly as she has for more than two years. A small spec at the $17 for me.
2. LOUISIANA LADY - 4. VERSCENE - 8. PRIVATE DANCE