2021 Perth Cup

Rodent · December 2020

I see Em Tee Aye is nominated. If the minimum weight is 53kg, it looks a terrible race for 3 year olds imho unless they get an age allowance. Field Officer won it in 1993 as a 3yo but only had to carry 46.5kg albeit over 3200m.

53kg would amount to carrying 2kg over WFA. 53kg for a 3yo would be the equivalent of 60kg for a 5yo+

Does anyone know if the 3yo would get say 2.5kg allowance and carry 50.5kg?

thefalcon · December 2020

who knows, rodent. have to wait and see what they deem appropriate.... :-O

Thunderstruck · December 2020

Also have no idea on the weight issue..

Of note to me is that Too Close The Sun is not even in the all in market so after he maybe wins the KT do they give him a break and set up for Melbourne in the autumn and a crack at the Australian cup?

First time i have viewed this market does anyone know what Neufbosc's price was prior to the Carbine win? $9 second favourite now.

Ridersonthestorm33 · December 2020

5/2 Truly Great wow that's short. Good luck there at those odds. Very interested to see how fares in the Kingston Town too, can run a big one!

"Value" at over double figures - two old fave's - Spiritual Warrior and Arctic Stream best bolter at 33/1 the Kalgoorlie Cup winner Missile Launch.

Ridersonthestorm33 · December 2020

16/1 Arctic Stream
20/1 Spiritual Warrior
33/1 Missile Launch

If all three run and none run a place I'll walk to Chile.

Ridersonthestorm33 · December 2020

They must have seen me comin ...now 25/1, 33/1, and 50/1 respectively.
I'll walk to China and Chile if all three miss a place, providing they all run!

The field will fall over like nine pins, these three are like old soldiers and hoping they'll be there.

H-BOMBER · December 2020

Perth Cup probably off the radar now for Truly Great ala Regal Power. Probably smashes then in the Cox Stakes and goes out now

Ridersonthestorm33 · December 2020

Didn't follow them that much over winter and early spring, and had no idea this hoop was here permanently, if owned a horse near the top of the weights I'd be snapping him up any day of the week, can recall seeing him in Victoria over two decades ago, thought he was outstanding - Brad Rawiller.

His winning ride the other week on the old boy Red Publisher one of the best could ever wish to see. Not sure what he rides at but he's an asset for WA racing, rate him big time!

thefalcon · December 2020

the cup this year will be the same as any mediocre middle distance race that we see every week..eg the one run and won yesterday. :-B

JimmyPop · December 2020

H-BOMBER said:
Perth Cup probably off the radar now for Truly Great ala Regal Power. Probably smashes then in the Cox Stakes and goes out now

He should still go there. Nowadays a suppressed weight scale. He will get 58kg and everything else will be 53kg. He will get in very well at the weights.

thefalcon · December 2020

if you read bobs glowing remarks about TG i think he has much bigger fish to fry than the perth cup..

Buddy123 · December 2020

Yep the Kingston over 3 seconds quicker than last year.. Bobs horses never run out of gas.. they love a quick tempo..

Ridersonthestorm33 · December 2020

See one of the Corp's has Dark Musket at 200/1 must have run in at least four Perth Cups - can recall one of his early cups loomed up to them menacingly at the furlong...looked a slight hope of winning and certain to be placed, only to be outshone by a cerise and white trifecta.

Ohsomodest · December 2020

Surprising that Too Close The Sun isn’t nom’d but then they do love a late nomination.

thefalcon · December 2020

should be 2000/1 on his exposed form, riders. was only thinking on saturday when he was an also ran that retirement must be looming.

Ridersonthestorm33 · December 2020

For sure falc, not a hope in hades no matter how much the field whittles away, seems along time ago when placed behind Perfect Reflection in a Kingston Town, and a very good fourth to Delicacy in a Perth Cup.

Ridersonthestorm33 · December 2020

Noticed Platoon a big shortner - would he run a strong 2,400 ? Does fit the mould of horse you need these days - Railway - Kingston Town - Perth Cup.

The Material Man - Pounamu types who can be prominent and competitive in all three events. Gatting was like that too. Gotta be a chance Platoon.

Ridersonthestorm33 · December 2020

Spirtual Warrior into 11/1 on Tabtouch plenty of 33/1 was available on bet365, not sure if still is, this horse was deadset unlucky in the previous cup, caught up badly behind a tiring cerise and white runner, should've gone close to winning, or definetly run second.

That 25/1 Arctic Stream on bet365 now 16/1 Tabtouch. Will be surprised if Spiritual Warrior and Arctic Stream are not under 10/1 on the day...only trouble is they still have to get there, all in betting - no refunds on scratchings - pass.

Missile Launch might need one, 33/1 slowly going off him. But will keep an eye on.

H-BOMBER · December 2020

JimmyPop said:

H-BOMBER said:
Perth Cup probably off the radar now for Truly Great ala Regal Power. Probably smashes then in the Cox Stakes and goes out now
He should still go there. Nowadays a suppressed weight scale. He will get 58kg and everything else will be 53kg. He will get in very well at the weights.

He'll get 58 with Trap for Fools, if they rate the race an m98+.

In this instance, the following would be true

Trap for Fools 58
Truly Great 58
Spiritual Warrior 56
Taxagano 54
Missile Launch 53.5
The rest 53

Without Too Close the Sun nominated, it's hard to know what L Smith will do with Trap in. With the explosive win of Truly Great I don't think they'll go the cup as Bob always has back up ammo. Last year had Mississippi Delta primed on the minimum with Star Exhibit Lobbed into top weight. He won't risk Truly Great if he doesn't have to and to my eye, doesn't look as though he will have to because of TFF in the race. Truly Great has Regal Power written all over him and Bob is successful because he he follows a plan that works.

Bob's backup ammo realistically only Royal Command and Midnight blue, although the latter needs to win the Towton cup or ATA. Is say both will go that way and be as close to the minimum as possible and Royal Command looks the best of the 2 on ratings. Durrant has said not sure if it really stays. Jury out on these two.

I don't get the money for Platoon. Reactionary money more than smart of say. Neufbosc has been good, just a run on the weekend. Will improve over next two starts when over a trip. Spiritual Warrior is set up for a Warwick sting, will get through the next run unscathed and then be stripped for the Cup. Taxagano can't have.

They've all shortened significantly except for one. And that one is Missile Launch. This is where I'm at the moment. $34 for last year's runner up seems big overs if you are inclined to have a bet now. Just put a line through last two starts, they were to get match fitness. It is already garaunteed a start, so I would expect some improvement on its next run and wouldn't surprise of it ran a solid 4th. Then straight into the 2400m of the cup should be cherry ripe.

Ngawyni · December 2020

Bob's won 5 of the last 6 and he's got the first 3 in the market this year. Hard not to think the rest are just making up the numbers.

Ridersonthestorm33 · December 2020

Have to go out on a limb sometimes but providing Truly Great doesn't run the cerise and white won't be saluting this time. Ouch.

@bomber see Missile Launch still 50/1 on bet365...Spiritual Warrior 20/1 in from 33/1 and Arctic Stream 16/1 in from 25/1.

Sometimes not that popular with punters Spiritual Warrior always up at the top of the weights, could carry number one saddlecloth, Justin Warwick might just get one more out of him.

Had some amazing fluctuations in betting leading into races before the last Perth Cup, also if watch a replay of the Cup will see how unlucky it was.

Ridersonthestorm33 · December 2020

He's a gunner Platoon...reticent to say can't win though. Parnham factor. Top 6 chances at this stage.

If carries up near the top and he can ride at that weight - Brad Rawiller/Spiriual Warrior - would like to see it!

H-BOMBER · December 2020

Decided to back Missile Launch on Tuesday as saw it was in the noms for Saturday

Now I'm hearing its out as it has succumbed to allergies and wont be running in the Cup.

:((

H-BOMBER · December 2020

H-BOMBER said:

JimmyPop said:

H-BOMBER said:
Perth Cup probably off the radar now for Truly Great ala Regal Power. Probably smashes then in the Cox Stakes and goes out now
He should still go there. Nowadays a suppressed weight scale. He will get 58kg and everything else will be 53kg. He will get in very well at the weights.

He'll get 58 with Trap for Fools, if they rate the race an m98+.

In this instance, the following would be true

Trap for Fools 58
Truly Great 58
Spiritual Warrior 56
Taxagano 54
Missile Launch 53.5
The rest 53

Without Too Close the Sun nominated, it's hard to know what L Smith will do with Trap in. With the explosive win of Truly Great I don't think they'll go the cup as Bob always has back up ammo. Last year had Mississippi Delta primed on the minimum with Star Exhibit Lobbed into top weight. He won't risk Truly Great if he doesn't have to and to my eye, doesn't look as though he will have to because of TFF in the race. Truly Great has Regal Power written all over him and Bob is successful because he he follows a plan that works.

Bob's backup ammo realistically only Royal Command and Midnight blue, although the latter needs to win the Towton cup or ATA. Is say both will go that way and be as close to the minimum as possible and Royal Command looks the best of the 2 on ratings. Durrant has said not sure if it really stays. Jury out on these two.

I don't get the money for Platoon. Reactionary money more than smart of say. Neufbosc has been good, just a run on the weekend. Will improve over next two starts when over a trip. Spiritual Warrior is set up for a Warwick sting, will get through the next run unscathed and then be stripped for the Cup. Taxagano can't have.

They've all shortened significantly except for one. And that one is Missile Launch. This is where I'm at the moment. $34 for last year's runner up seems big overs if you are inclined to have a bet now. Just put a line through last two starts, they were to get match fitness. It is already garaunteed a start, so I would expect some improvement on its next run and wouldn't surprise of it ran a solid 4th. Then straight into the 2400m of the cup should be cherry ripe.

I hope nobody listened to these ramblings from me. Im the worst

altern8vu · December 2020

hi bomber your outthere rambling could well b on the money for one only & thats S/W of JTW as i believe he is about to take a sabatical away from racing very soon , which he prob deserves , thats the whisper , if true then he may just go with a big bang bang with SW & fly off to some tropical hideaway for 12 or more mths to recharge the body :D :D $-) ;)

thefalcon · December 2020

the field? just look at saturdays towten cup....

anyone want to bet me that Bob doesn't win the cup?...

;)

H-BOMBER · December 2020

How do today's results affect the cup going forward now? Bob might be caught short this year leaving it open for someone else. Maybe he'll go that way with Truly Great seeing Trap win today like that.

In all seriousness, Trap for Fools win today I'm surpised doesn't put him higher in the betting. He's $11. Sure, he'll most likely get 60 and most of the others will be on 53 but gee whiz he killed them today. The horse is so tough he'll probably front up in the Cox Stakes next week

Neufbosc was a nice run today and Freezemoff might be a smokey's hope, seemed to be absolutely bolting behind them.

SLIPPERGOLDEN · December 2020

Backed Neufbosc for the Cup earlier on and won my stake and plenty when it won recently. Having done that I am still surprised how this horse is handling harder track and warmer conditions,

When it wins the Perth Cup Nifty Nev will have created the second... Actually make that the third greatest achievement in recent history behind the creation of the vaccine for Coronavirus however Number One is the proof that Ivermectin is the saver of lives prior to that (since August) but hardly anyone gave it credit or recommended using it..

Ridersonthestorm33 · December 2020

Brad Rawiller 2 rides 2 wins, class tells.

Hey bomber won well over 2 million Trap For Fools - weight factor yesterday 62kgs - fair dinkum thrown in!

And those "bottom weighted" horses use to carry 48kgs! No such thing as a light weight anymore, get a proven campaigner like Trap For Fools half right and they'll eat them for breakfast - especially at the weights.

Remember Star Exhibit winning a cup at 66/1...too much weight he had...pullllllease.

Gilgamesh · December 2020

With Trap For Fools how does it not just get its own way in front, where does any pressure come from?

Neufbosc ran the second fastest last 200 of the day and got no where near TFF so how does it beat it in the Cup?

Buts74 · December 2020

G'day Punter!

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