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Belmont 26 July

West Australian Racing
WizardWizard    3,611 posts
edited July 2014 West Australian Racing
Very good meeting to my way of thinking.
Won't be many on Sujet this week. I have never seen a WA race horse price like Smoko: @ $1.65
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Comments

  • SHOVHOGSHOVHOG    1,792 posts
    Great meeting  

    Terror Force @ $9.5

    Gladstone @ $3

    In my humble they are the 2 best bets on the program.

    Terror Force is a horse that is crying out for the mile in this class , was ridden upside down behind tick tick bloom over the mile on a bog last time and never looked comfortable. Other run at a mile was in the w.a guineas behind Ihtsahymn which was a solid performance. Last start was a cracker to run second to Crown Lawyer with the likes of Bonny Zara , Sujet , Stagnite and steel almighty who won on wednesday all behind terror force.

    Main danger is Midnight Shimmer and the speed in the race.

    I don't believe Crown Lawyer will ever win a strong mile race especially with 58.5 kg's. But could lead and control the race with a very slow tempo which needs to happen for him to win.

    Im a big rap for crown lawyer and the form around his races but i doubt 1600m is going to suit.

    Wizard likes this post.

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  • ChrisChris    5,734 posts
    Smoko unders or overs?
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  • thefalconthefalcon    20,495 posts
    unders...probably should be 1/1

    SHOVHOG likes this post.

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  • trevydardstrevydards    652 posts
    Think you have to include Sujet they came out pretty quick and said the 1400m was to much and is a 1000m -1200m horse so you have to include him in the quaddie i'd say. If Smoko drew a barrier I would of been taking $1.65 straight away but will just sit out and watch. Heavy Set is a roughie in the race that i'd include as well.
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  • SHOVHOGSHOVHOG    1,792 posts
    Unders and I would expect close to $1.9 $2 on the day
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  • WizardWizard    3,611 posts
    edited July 2014
    trevydards said:

    Think you have to include Sujet they came out pretty quick and said the 1400m was to much and is a 1000m -1200m horse so you have to include him in the quaddie i'd say. If Smoko drew a barrier I would of been taking $1.65 straight away but will just sit out and watch. Heavy Set is a roughie in the race that i'd include as well.

    There is a few to throw in like Windswept and Antique Belle that ran a good trial.
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  • WizardWizard    3,611 posts
    Race 1 is going to be hard also. Kaapander is lugging some weight
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  • Raff_2000Raff_2000    802 posts
    Chris said:

    Smoko unders or overs?


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  • Raff_2000Raff_2000    802 posts
    edited July 2014
    I actually think he is slightly under the price he should be Chris (only slightly mind you).

    He is certainly the class horse of this particular field, but he has drawn a wide barrier again and I believe he is giving away a minimum of 3 kilos to the opposing runners (after the apprentices claim their allowance).

    If he is given his fair share of luck, I think he'll be too good for in this race on Saturday, but I'm not prepared to say that he is unbeatable that's for sure ;)
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  • mailman505mailman505    497 posts
    SAVE YOUR MONEY WITH GLADSTONE HE IS ALMOST LAY OF DAY SUJET IS CHEWWED UP ANOTHER THAT CANT WIN.
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  • mailman505mailman505    497 posts
    And another that I do not think can win is midnight shimmer all these horses in my view don't have figures that reflect their market price just my early view.
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  • thefalconthefalcon    20,495 posts
    do not think windswept will start...sickness in the stable.
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  • PrecisionPrecision    295 posts
    Smoko is unders for mine, can't see any reason why he won't cross and once he does it'll be all over. Think he drew 3 in the Bolton so if connections were concerned about the barrier they would've gone there and I reckon he would've won that as well. All up with Comfysofa is a great bet
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  • careycarey    6,424 posts
    mailman505 said:

    And another that I do not think can win is midnight shimmer all these horses in my view don't have figures that reflect their market price just my early view.

    maybe not, but the rider has been to belmont 50 times and won 15 of them, and the way she is going has to worth at least a small bonus.

    squid69 likes this post.

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  • ChrisChris    5,734 posts
    Think he's overs at 1.7-1.8 personally and you will not get $2 on the day
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  • trevydardstrevydards    652 posts
    My main bet for the day will be in race 5 #6 State Form at $17/$4 having more on the place. Finally draws a barrier here and back up to Saturday grade. Last start they said it would go forward from the wide barrier and was stuck out wide the whole race and was no chance.

    Its first up run was impressive and getting out to the 2000m now I think it suits. Gets in at 54kg with the claim meeting  Gladstone 3.5kg better off now. I think it can box seat if they chose to go forward again here and get a lovely run with Kirov Boy probably pushing up on the inside and Rive Gauche comes across from out wide.

    SLIPPERGOLDEN likes this post.

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  • ColdyColdy    1,720 posts
    No love for my old mate Blacksmith  $-)  Is somewhat of Giant Killer, has the form to run another cheeky race & Lucy could win on brick atm 
     EW
    Blacksmith 
    Pinicici
    Cyclonic Halo 
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  • Raff_2000Raff_2000    802 posts
    edited July 2014
    Coldy said:

    No love for my old mate Blacksmith  $-)  Is somewhat of Giant Killer, has the form to run another cheeky race & Lucy could win on brick atm 

     EW
    Blacksmith 
    Pinicici
    Cyclonic Halo 
    I can't see why Blacksmith won't be letting his presence be felt again tomorrow Coldy. He's a noted on speed runner, yet still managed to win from barrier 13 last start. He's drawn gate 1 tomorrow, has a good enough 2nd up record & will certainly get a lot of benefit from the 3 kilo claim of an in form apprentice with plenty of potential.

    Who knows what the 2nd favourite horse will be paying for the win after Smoko as well :-?? ;)

    Coldy likes this post.

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  • WizardWizard    3,611 posts
    Who can help me out on race 8 at Belmont? There is at least 6 that can win.
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  • GrayGray    4,090 posts
    I blackbooked Gigante last week so will follow it this Saturday in race 8, raced a bit green but I liked its style.
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  • GrayGray    4,090 posts
    I note they have persisted with Black Magic Miss again, they are racing it week in and week out, I thought it was ready for the paddock 2 starts back but it placed next start, I just cannot afford to leave it out of my exotics tmorra because I have been following it in all it runs in this time.

    rooboy, thefalcon likes this post.

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  • WizardWizard    3,611 posts
    breakNegg said:

    I blackbooked Gigante last week so will follow it this Saturday in race 8, raced a bit green but I liked its style.

    I looked at him but he doesn't stand out in any way.
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  • GrayGray    4,090 posts
    I like it in a big way Wizard.
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  • WizardWizard    3,611 posts
    breakNegg said:

    I like it in a big way Wizard.

    Tell me why bloke.
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  • GrayGray    4,090 posts
    It jumped out of the ruck last start as if it was screaming for the 200 metres more. I thought it was going to go past Debs Delight on the line but it was racing green, and it upset its momentum 50 out
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  • GrayGray    4,090 posts
    I blackbooked as I was impressed with the run, I think I mentioned here at the time what a good run it was.

    Wizard likes this post.

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  • razorrazor    205 posts
    Two bets for me, I snapped up the 17s for Carney on Thurs and then had a go at Sculptures at 19s in the last. Good luck to all (except the bloke I play in knockout) 

    Gray, RIO, notapunta likes this post.

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  • WizardWizard    3,611 posts
    razor said:

    Two bets for me, I snapped up the 17s for Carney on Thurs and then had a go at Sculptures at 19s in the last. Good luck to all (except the bloke I play in knockout) 

    May I ask why Sculptures?
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  • razorrazor    205 posts
    Reasonable eastern form and S.O'Donnell on board for first start, he always does well first ride on a new horse. And also if it was only handy it would have gone straight to Kal with the other Berminghams...I like Wombies legacy, the favs are both unders  

    Wizard likes this post.

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  • WizardWizard    3,611 posts
    razor said:

    Reasonable eastern form and S.O'Donnell on board for first start, he always does well first ride on a new horse. And also if it was only handy it would have gone straight to Kal with the other Berminghams...I like Wombies legacy, the favs are both unders  

    I now like Cyclonic Halo. Had some bad luck last start and has drawn a good barrier. However, I am still don't know who I want for sure.
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